Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:30:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

86
0x864c…f808
sports · 60 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$7 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses17 / 40
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)57 / 60
History coverage118d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 3 History 57 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Yes 97¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Knicks vs. Hawks Knicks 52¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $80 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $80 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $80 $0 +0%
Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by bet May 24 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? May 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 24 $82 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $1 $0 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 24 $75 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $77 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will Taqaddom Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliament May 15 $1 $0 -2%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $70 $0 -0%
Will Aldrich Potgieter win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 15 $75 −$2 -2%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $70 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $50 $0 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $2 −$1 -32%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 23 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? Apr 23 $87 $0 -0%
Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $30 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Eastern Euro Apr 23 $1 $0 +1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 23 $1 $0 +8%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 23 $1 +$1 +67%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 14 $139 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $85 $0 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels Apr 14 $2 +$1 +70%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 08 $83 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $142 $0 +0%
LoL: T1 vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Solana reach $100 in March? Apr 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March? Apr 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $170 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $79 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 23 $87 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 23 $60 $0 -0%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 18? Mar 23 $1 +$1 +85%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 17 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 17 $85 $0 -0%
Will Alabama win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $86 $0 -0%
Will Louisville win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $86 $0 -0%
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 11 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 11 $86 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 11 $89 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 11 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 07 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 07 $181 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 07 $92 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 45% −$8
other 30% −$2
politics 14% −$1
crypto 3% +$3
tech 3% $0
economics 3% $0
finance 3% $0
world 0% $0
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 1h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $80 1h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $80 1h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $80 1h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $80 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $80 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $80 7d
Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by bet SELL No 99¢ $2 19d
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? SELL No 74¢ $2 19d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $1 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 79¢ $1 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 19d
Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by bet BUY No 100¢ $2 19d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? SELL No 96¢ $75 19d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 96¢ $75 19d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $77 19d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $77 19d
Will Taqaddom Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliament SELL No 99¢ $1 28d
Will Taqaddom Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliament BUY No 99¢ $1 28d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $2 28d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $70 28d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $70 28d
Will Aldrich Potgieter win the 2026 PGA Championship? SELL No 97¢ $73 28d
Will Aldrich Potgieter win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY No 99¢ $75 28d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $69 28d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $70 37d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 41d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $2 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 15 -0.3% -9.8% 27% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 43 -4.7% -13.8% 30% 7% -10.0%
all 57 -1.8% -11.2% 30% 11% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 11% -9.7%
10% -19.7% 9% -18.4%
15% -27.4% 9% -26.3%
20% -34.5% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.59 · official $4.59 (match) · 149 history records