Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:45:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x864f…c9ce crypto 174 markets active 1d ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate83%144W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day22.6pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$83
14 days−$56
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$55
other 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 -1.0% -10.4% 83% 46% -11.2%
≤30d 174 -0.1% -9.6% 83% 45% -10.4%
≤90d 174 -0.1% -9.6% 83% 45% -10.4%
all 174 -0.1% -9.6% 83% 45% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 45% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 18% -19.0%
15% -26.1% 7% -26.8%
20% -33.4% 3% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$23 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses144 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)174 / 174
History coverage10d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day22.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 174 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $50 −$50 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $30 −$16 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$15 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$6 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$4 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$6 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$3 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$10 +32%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $102 −$47 -46%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $169 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$19 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$2 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $30 +$3 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$6 -19%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 39h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 40h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $30 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $50 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $51 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $30 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $53 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $51 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $18 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $15 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $31 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $32 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $30 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $30 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $30 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $30 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $30 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $30 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $112 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 425 history records