Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:21:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x864f…5c71 other 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$152 (+0%) realized +$150 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate22%27W / 98L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$951per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$671now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$11
14 days−$18
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$85
politics 43% −$62
sports 7% +$115
culture 2% −$3
crypto 1% +$3
economics 1% −$1
tech 1% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 62 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
all 125 -1.4% -10.8% 22% 13% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 13% -9.4%
10% -19.3% 12% -18.1%
15% -27.1% 10% -26.0%
20% -34.2% 6% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,167) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$10 · ×4.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$671
Realized+$150
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses27 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage136d
Avg bet$951
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $668 $671 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 28 $3,307 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $489 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $2,310 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $2,341 −$3 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $2,877 −$3 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,487 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,159 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $720 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,167 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,049 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,036 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1,028 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $903 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $999 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $777 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 03 $240 +$1 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in May? Jun 03 $509 +$1 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $394 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $326 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $397 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $1,364 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $4,278 −$5 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 21 $976 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 09 $1,154 −$2 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $1,184 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $1,197 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $1,191 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $1,201 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $1,086 −$2 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $1,175 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $1,201 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $1,093 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April? May 02 $257 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 02 $263 $0 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $1,416 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $4,513 −$5 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $799 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,786 −$2 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $2,084 −$2 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $2,668 −$3 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $887 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $6,028 −$6 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,120 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,024 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $489 1h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $490 3h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $490 21h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $491 23h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $488 26h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $489 27h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $490 46h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $491 2d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $487 6d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $488 6d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $489 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $490 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $493 8d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $494 8d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $493 9d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $494 9d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $668 11d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,157 13d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,159 13d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $719 13d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $720 13d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,166 14d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,167 14d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,164 14d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,166 14d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,157 14d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,159 15d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,047 15d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,049 15d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $625 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $670.58 · official $670.58 (match) · 412 history records