Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:23:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
86 0x864f…025b sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 179d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,555 (+24%) realized +$1,555 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$410per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$34
14 days−$34
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$1,605
other 1% −$42
world 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -9.5% -18.1% 33% 33% -21.5%
≤30d 3 -9.5% -18.1% 33% 33% -21.5%
≤90d 3 -9.5% -18.1% 33% 33% -21.5%
all 16 +18.7% +7.4% 50% 50% +11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.4% 50% +11.9%
10% -2.9% 44% +1.2%
15% -12.3% 38% -8.6%
20% -20.9% 31% -17.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$435 vs −$241 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,555
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage179d
Avg bet$410
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $148 −$28 -19%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $53 +$8 +15%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $59 −$14 -25%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Heat vs. Bulls Jan 31 $1,380 +$620 +45%
Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves Jan 09 $560 +$440 +79%
Mavericks vs. Jazz Jan 09 $360 +$640 +178%
Pacers vs. Hornets Jan 08 $620 −$620 -100%
Clippers vs. Knicks Jan 08 $630 +$370 +59%
Magic vs. Nets Jan 08 $540 +$460 +85%
Pelicans vs. Hawks Jan 08 $790 +$210 +27%
Magic vs. Pacers Dec 31 $936 −$936 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw Dec 31 $161 +$731 +456%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-30? Dec 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2025-12-30? Dec 30 $17 −$17 -100%
Mavericks vs. Kings Dec 27 $290 −$290 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 40¢ $120 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $38 2h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $20 2h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $22 2h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $68 2h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 61¢ $53 2h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 61¢ $2 2h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 61¢ $6 2h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 53¢ $39 2h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5 2h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 53¢ $8 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 45¢ $44 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 3h
US forces enter Iran by March 14? BUY Yes $9 105d
Mavericks vs. Jazz BUY Jazz 36¢ $360 167d
Pacers vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 62¢ $620 167d
Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 56¢ $560 167d
Heat vs. Bulls BUY Heat 69¢ $1,380 167d
Magic vs. Nets BUY Magic 54¢ $540 168d
Clippers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 63¢ $242 168d
Clippers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 63¢ $23 168d
Clippers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 63¢ $4 168d
Clippers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 63¢ $3 168d
Clippers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 63¢ $358 168d
Pelicans vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 79¢ $790 168d
Magic vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 39¢ $936 175d
Will Manchester United FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw BUY Yes 18¢ $3 176d
Will Manchester United FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw BUY Yes 18¢ $1 176d
Will Manchester United FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw BUY Yes 18¢ $1 176d
Will Manchester United FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw BUY Yes 18¢ $2 176d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records