Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:41:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x864f…3ae7 sports 532 markets active 0h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$550 (-6%) realized −$413 · open −$137
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate45%235W / 292L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$384now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$54
14 days−$32
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% +$82
sports 29% −$71
other 14% −$265
politics 13% −$207
culture 6% −$121
tech 4% −$8
weather 3% −$32
crypto 1% +$54
finance 0% −$4
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -4.7% -13.8% 64% 30% -10.9%
≤30d 131 -19.5% -27.2% 50% 24% -10.5%
≤90d 215 -11.2% -19.6% 50% 27% -11.6%
all 527 -11.3% -19.8% 45% 27% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 27% -14.3%
10% -27.4% 19% -22.5%
15% -34.5% 15% -30.0%
20% -40.9% 12% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$384
Realized−$413
Unrealized−$137
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses235 / 292
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions5
Markets (closed)527 / 532
History coverage153d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 527 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 68¢ 42¢ $311 $190 −$122 (-39%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? No 77¢ 81¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? No 52¢ 42¢ $70 $56 −$14 (-20%)
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? No 46¢ 48¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes $10 $1 −$9 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? Jun 20 $57 +$8 +14%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $21 $0 -1%
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 19 $22 −$3 -12%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 19 $110 +$1 +1%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $85 −$42 -49%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $15 +$11 +72%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $295 +$16 +6%
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b Jun 19 $23 $0 -2%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 19 $38 −$2 -5%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $20 +$2 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 18 $400 +$37 +9%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 18 $125 −$18 -14%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $30 −$6 -19%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $3 $0 -0%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +26%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $30 +$5 +16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $101 +$2 +2%
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Hong Kong have between 475-500mm of precipitation in June? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $231 +$3 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $410 +$18 +4%
Will Everett Wess be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Sp Jun 17 $250 $0 +0%
Will Dakarai Larriett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $160 +$1 +1%
Will Hong Kong have 500mm or more of precipitation in June? Jun 16 $10 $0 -4%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 15 $5 −$4 -90%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 14 $115 +$2 +2%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +53%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 −$5 -9%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $32 −$2 -6%
Will T1 qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 14 $12 +$2 +14%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $15 +$7 +48%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $20 +$4 +17%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $35 +$28 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +17%
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $40 −$9 -24%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $36 +$8 +22%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 13 $5 −$3 -53%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 13 $129 −$129 -100%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $15 +$19 +125%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? SELL No 38¢ $8 12m
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? SELL No 38¢ $20 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $31 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $101 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $20 10h
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL Yes 20¢ $8 17h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL No 95¢ $111 17h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers $4 19h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $3 19h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers $5 19h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL KT Rolster Challengers 19¢ $4 19h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 45¢ $5 19h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 51¢ $10 19h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 51¢ $10 19h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL KT Rolster Challengers 70¢ $11 19h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL KT Rolster Challengers 71¢ $15 19h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 59¢ $9 19h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $10 19h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 43¢ $10 19h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? SELL No 41¢ $10 19h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 44¢ $18 19h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 39¢ $1 20h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 99¢ $19 20h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 42¢ $2 20h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 34¢ $5 20h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 67¢ $7 20h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 67¢ $10 20h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL KT Rolster Challengers 68¢ $11 20h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 62¢ $10 21h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? SELL No 35¢ $10 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $383.71 · official $383.73 (match) · 2308 history records