Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:48:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
86 0x864f…dc04 other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+2%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%14W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$38
crypto 26% −$14
sports 7% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -43.1% -48.5% 18% 18% -9.8%
≤30d 24 -38.1% -44.0% 21% 21% -8.1%
≤90d 37 -19.5% -27.2% 38% 38% -7.3%
all 38 -21.5% -29.0% 37% 37% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.0% 37% -11.0%
10% -35.8% 34% -19.5%
15% -42.0% 32% -27.3%
20% -47.7% 24% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$9 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses14 / 24
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage176d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $66 $66 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $84 −$17 -20%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 −$16 -81%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $67 +$40 +60%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $76 −$9 -12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$26 +52%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $10 +$49 +474%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$34 -68%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $70 +$33 +48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $34 +$18 +51%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $42 −$7 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 07 $3 +$2 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 07 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 07 $15 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 07 $21 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 07 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 07 $2 +$2 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 07 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 07 $14 +$8 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 07 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 07 $10 +$5 +49%
Lighter Airdrop on December 30? Dec 30 $30 −$28 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $67 41m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 68¢ $67 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $84 4h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 18h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 18h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 33h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 33h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 33h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 33h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 33h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $67 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 63¢ $67 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $76 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $50 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 4d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 17¢ $16 4d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 4d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $103 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $70 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on June 2? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 65¢ $31 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.42 · official $66.42 (match) · 67 history records