Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:57:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8650…b239 crypto 110 markets active 15h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$141 (-3%) realized −$94 · open −$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate53%53W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day51.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$197
tech 4% −$30
other 2% −$32
world 1% −$41
weather 0% −$20
sports 0% −$2
finance 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -16.5% -24.4% 53% 39% -15.3%
≤30d 100 -16.5% -24.4% 53% 39% -15.3%
≤90d 100 -16.5% -24.4% 53% 39% -15.3%
all 100 -16.5% -24.4% 53% 39% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.4% 39% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -31.7% 27% -23.4%
15% -38.3% 17% -30.8%
20% -44.3% 14% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$18 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$94
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses53 / 47
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)100 / 110
History coverage6d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day51.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-12%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? Yes 16¢ 8¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-47%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 3¢ 0¢ $36 $2 −$34 (-95%)
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-90%)
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets in June 2026? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +5%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$26 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$15 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $129 −$125 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$19 +19%
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1500+? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $51 +$49 +96%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $78 −$76 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $26 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $111 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $101 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $128 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $22 +$28 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$5 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$5 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$3 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$19 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$22 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$5 +44%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $56 −$19 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 11 $56 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $76 −$25 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $82 −$5 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $144 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $133 −$6 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $127 +$15 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $206 −$48 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $205 −$35 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $183 +$12 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 16h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 23h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $30 26h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $3 26h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $6 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 26h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 26h
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 3d
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $52 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 6d
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1500+? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $99 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.86 · official $29.86 (match) · 357 history records