Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:28:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
86 0x8658…41c6 sports 398 markets active 1h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,905 (-8%) realized −$8,900 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate54%213W / 184L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$278per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$515now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$106
7 days−$1,203
14 days−$1,584
30 days−$1,497
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$6,371
other 8% −$2,427
politics 3% −$115
culture 0% −$7
world 0% −$37
economics 0% +$2
crypto 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -46.0% -51.2% 0% 0% -56.1%
≤30d 11 -54.5% -58.9% 18% 18% -48.4%
≤90d 11 -54.5% -58.9% 18% 18% -48.4%
all 397 -8.3% -17.0% 54% 43% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 43% -16.9%
10% -25.0% 33% -24.8%
15% -32.2% 24% -32.1%
20% -38.9% 16% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$160 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$515
Realized−$8,900
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses213 / 184
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)397 / 398
History coverage274d
Avg bet$278
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 397 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 55¢ 55¢ $520 $515 −$5 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 17 $560 −$32 -6%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $632 −$74 -12%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $998 −$998 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $149 −$99 -67%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 07 $96 −$96 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 07 $285 −$285 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd Jun 03 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $45 −$45 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $109 −$109 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $307 +$201 +66%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St Jun 01 $292 +$54 +19%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Mar 11 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 11 $287 −$287 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 10 $14 +$5 +37%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 10 $34 −$34 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage Mar 02 $81 −$20 -24%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Mar 02 $308 −$253 -82%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs M80 - Map 2 Winner Mar 02 $243 +$64 +26%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Mar 02 $192 +$51 +26%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs paiN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 02 $143 +$50 +35%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Mar 02 $333 −$190 -57%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Mar 02 $35 +$11 +30%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Mar 02 $311 −$275 -89%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 02 $287 +$23 +8%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs paiN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 02 $99 −$99 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Mar 02 $594 −$594 -100%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 01 $92 +$8 +9%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 01 $49 +$42 +85%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs M80 - Map 1 Winner Mar 01 $1,380 −$999 -72%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Monte (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 01 $1,000 +$440 +44%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Mar 01 $391 +$36 +9%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NRG (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 01 $287 +$286 +100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Feb 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 27 $503 +$71 +14%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 27 $378 +$145 +38%
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 27 $274 +$104 +38%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Feb 27 $289 +$5 +2%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 27 $289 +$6 +2%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Feb 26 $224 −$224 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Feb 26 $3,351 −$3,351 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 3 Winner Feb 26 $574 −$350 -61%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Feb 26 $3,153 +$198 +6%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs illwill - Map 1 Winner Feb 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 25 $2,372 +$780 +33%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Feb 25 $1,624 +$749 +46%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 24 $273 −$248 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: magic vs WHITEBIRD (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #16 Playo Feb 24 $526 −$96 -18%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Feb 24 $1,127 −$370 -33%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $527 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 73¢ $528 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $560 38h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $559 38h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $583 2d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S SELL TheMongolz 27¢ $49 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 79¢ $149 6d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 65¢ $998 10d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Liquid 51¢ $285 14d
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Sharks 51¢ $96 14d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 61¢ $109 15d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL B8 99¢ $508 15d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY B8 59¢ $307 15d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Lynn Vision 44¢ $45 15d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St SELL KOLESIE 99¢ $346 15d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St BUY KOLESIE 83¢ $292 15d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd BUY TheMongolz 50¢ $14 84d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 BUY G2 82¢ $287 98d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 51¢ $19 98d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $19 99d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 BUY Natus Vincere 73¢ $14 99d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 BUY G2 76¢ $34 106d
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage SELL FUT Esports 99¢ $34 106d
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage BUY FUT Esports 78¢ $27 106d
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage SELL Passion UA 21¢ $27 106d
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage BUY Passion UA 42¢ $54 106d
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 12¢ $54 106d
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 71¢ $308 106d
Counter-Strike: NIP vs M80 - Map 2 Winner SELL NIP 57¢ $308 106d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $515.29 · official $515.29 (match) · 1012 history records