Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:32:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x865a…70a2 politics 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 377d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%9W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% −$5
other 33% −$5
sports 13% −$2
culture 9% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
economics 2% +$1
world 2% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -7.2% -16.0% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 10 -4.4% -13.5% 10% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 11 -4.0% -13.1% 9% 0% -9.8%
all 76 -6.4% -15.3% 12% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 0% -9.7%
10% -23.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -30.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

377d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses9 / 67
Open positions3
Markets (closed)76 / 79
History coverage377d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+193%)
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $3 −$1 -28%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $199 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $100 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $98 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $305 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 09 $99 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $6 −$1 -14%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $97 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $94 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $100 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $103 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Waste" this week? (March 1) Mar 06 $103 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 04 $1 $0 -35%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 03 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 28 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 07 $102 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 30 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? Jan 26 $102 $0 +0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 21 $206 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 14 $100 $0 -0%
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 12 $103 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 10 $103 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 01 $211 $0 +0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 30 $102 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 28 $100 $0 -0%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26? Dec 26 $103 $0 +0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 24 $100 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 21 $313 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 20 $101 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 17 $100 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 13 $103 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $103 $0 +0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 09 $99 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 05 $205 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 04 $206 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 30 $100 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Nov 26 $101 $0 -0%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Nov 23 $423 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 16 $214 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 10 $100 $0 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Nov 06 $102 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 02 $102 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 30 $100 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 28 $104 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 21 $103 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 19 $105 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 16 $101 $0 -0%
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 14 $316 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $103 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 09 $102 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $95 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $95 2d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $99 3d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 4d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $98 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $98 7d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 9d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $96 9d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $96 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $99 15d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 15d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 17d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 17d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $97 17d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $97 18d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 18d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 19d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 19d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $93 19d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $93 22d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 22d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 26d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $100 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.40 · official $2.40 (match) · 409 history records