Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:47:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x865c…a2e1 crypto 16 markets active 16h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized +$15 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate73%11W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$499per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$203
7 days−$290
14 days−$202
30 days−$202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$243
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +10.2% -0.3% 75% 50% -13.3%
≤30d 15 +8.6% -1.7% 73% 33% -11.8%
≤90d 15 +8.6% -1.7% 73% 33% -11.8%
all 15 +8.6% -1.7% 73% 33% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.7% 33% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -11.1% 20% -20.3%
15% -19.7% 13% -28.0%
20% -27.6% 7% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$188 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$15
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses11 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage11d
Avg bet$499
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Yes 63¢ 40¢ $109 $69 −$41 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $382 −$203 -53%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 16 $179 +$33 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $3,618 −$545 -15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $45 +$33 +75%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $1,737 +$144 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $601 +$181 +30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $389 +$66 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $333 +$20 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $156 +$57 +37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $94 −$4 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $172 +$5 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $141 +$10 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $12 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $3 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 63¢ $112 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 40¢ $133 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 40¢ $72 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? SELL No 46¢ $11 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? SELL No 38¢ $201 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 38¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 32¢ $169 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 63¢ $178 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 61¢ $177 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? SELL No 33¢ $78 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 17¢ $45 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY No 13¢ $36 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY No 13¢ $6 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY No 13¢ $552 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY No 13¢ $14 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY No 13¢ $4 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY No 14¢ $36 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY No 14¢ $113 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY No 14¢ $8 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY No 14¢ $4 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY No 14¢ $2 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY No 14¢ $4 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY No 14¢ $2 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY No 14¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY No 14¢ $277 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY No 14¢ $9 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 70¢ $318 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 70¢ $723 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 50¢ $690 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.54 · official $89.37 · 200 history records