Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:53:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

86
0x865f…e88e
other · 346 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$11,045 -39%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$10,936 · open −$259
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6,499
Realized−$10,936
Unrealized−$259
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses150 / 230
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$136
Open positions193
Markets (closed)380 / 346
History coverage7d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day452.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%
Chart Positions 193 History 380 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11,823
7 days−$10,978
14 days−$10,936
30 days−$10,936
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Paraguay? No 96¢ 100¢ $237 $247 +$10 (+4%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 48¢ 99¢ $100 $205 +$105 (+106%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? No 89¢ 100¢ $173 $193 +$21 (+12%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? No 93¢ 100¢ $175 $188 +$13 (+7%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? No 95¢ 96¢ $139 $141 +$2 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? No 9¢ 10¢ $130 $137 +$7 (+6%)
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? No 89¢ 100¢ $114 $128 +$14 (+12%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 40¢ 100¢ $50 $125 +$75 (+150%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? No 96¢ 56¢ $202 $117 −$85 (-42%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $95 $115 +$20 (+21%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 48¢ 52¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 40¢ 44¢ $96 $107 +$11 (+11%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 32¢ 34¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? No 83¢ 84¢ $101 $102 +$1 (+1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 56¢ $102 $102 −$0 (-0%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Yes 32¢ 34¢ $98 $101 +$3 (+3%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? No 39¢ 38¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 100¢ $44 $94 +$50 (+112%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Paraguay? No 94¢ 100¢ $87 $93 +$5 (+6%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score No 67¢ 66¢ $90 $90 −$0 (-0%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 41¢ 36¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 78¢ 76¢ $82 $81 −$2 (-2%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? No 52¢ 100¢ $36 $68 +$33 (+91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-01? Jun 13 $1 +$3 +317%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 13 $1 −$4 -750%
Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-05-09? Jun 13 $0 +$1 +154%
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-05-23? Jun 13 $0 +$1 +208%
Will Lincoln City FC win on 2026-05-02? Jun 13 $0 $0 +82%
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-03? Jun 13 $1 $0 +72%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? Jun 13 $0 $0 +170%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? Jun 13 $0 +$2 +522%
Will Colorado Rapids SC win on 2026-05-13? Jun 13 $0 +$1 +479%
Will SS Juve Stabia win on 2026-05-12? Jun 13 $0 $0 +317%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 13 $0 +$4 +2197%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-08? Jun 13 $0 +$1 +349%
Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2026-05-10? Jun 13 $0 $0 +100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Jun 13 $0 $0 +525%
Will Cádiz CF win on 2026-05-24? Jun 13 $0 $0 -387%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-05-10? Jun 13 $0 $0 +49%
Will Elche CF vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? Jun 13 $89 −$89 -100%
Will Juventus FC vs. SSC Napoli end in a draw? Jun 13 $109 −$109 -100%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-02-15? Jun 13 $64 −$63 -100%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-01-10? Jun 13 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Romania win on 2025-10-12? Jun 13 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Parma win on 2025-11-08? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-22? Jun 13 $69 −$69 -100%
Will CD Guadalajara vs. Tigres de la UANL end in a draw? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-12-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -96%
Will Genoa win on 2025-10-29? Jun 13 $64 −$63 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-03-28? Jun 13 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Jun 13 $7 +$3 +43%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-01-24? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Telstar 1963 win on 2026-05-17? Jun 13 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-17? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2025-12-21? Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-01-03? Jun 13 $107 −$106 -99%
Will Albania vs. England end in a draw? Jun 13 $24 −$20 -83%
Will Girona win on 2025-09-26? Jun 13 $61 −$63 -103%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-02-07? Jun 13 $96 −$96 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-01-23? Jun 13 $99 −$77 -77%
Will Brentford win on 2025-08-17? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -106%
Will Ecuador win on 2025-11-13? Jun 13 $89 −$41 -46%
Will Genoa win on 2025-10-19? Jun 13 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Fiorentina win on 2025-10-26? Jun 13 $95 −$94 -99%
Will Lazio win on 2025-11-03? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Paris FC win on 2025-12-13? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Brewers vs. Braves Jun 13 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-21? Jun 13 $69 −$69 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2025-11-02? Jun 13 $116 −$114 -98%
Will Colombia vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$15 +1368%
Will Romania vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -96%
Will Girona win on 2025-10-31? Jun 13 $41 +$39 +95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 69% +$629
sports 28% +$207
crypto 2% +$21
world 0% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 45¢ $5 5m
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? BUY No 89¢ $0 5m
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 8m
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 9m
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 88¢ $15 9m
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 14m
Qatar leading at halftime? BUY No 92¢ $12 16m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 5¢ $1 22m
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? BUY No 89¢ $10 25m
Morocco leading at halftime? SELL No 85¢ $14 35m
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? BUY No 92¢ $10 42m
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 51m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $28 59m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $45 59m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $27 59m
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? SELL No 93¢ $8 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 41¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? BUY No 92¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? SELL No 85¢ $13 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 88¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 0 Switzerland? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY No 95¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? BUY No 92¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY No 89¢ $14 1h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY No 49¢ $18 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 376 -20.4% -28.0% 39% 20% -43.7%
≤30d 380 -19.7% -27.3% 39% 21% -43.4%
≤90d 380 -19.7% -27.3% 39% 21% -43.4%
all 380 -19.7% -27.3% 39% 21% -43.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover452.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.3% 21% -43.4%
10% ← realistic here -34.3% 15% -48.8%
15% -40.6% 12% -53.8%
20% -46.5% 11% -58.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,498.74 · official $6,486.25 (match) · 3500 history records