Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:44:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

86
0x8660…dffb
crypto · 30 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$2 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses11 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage6d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day49.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 29 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Down 64¢ 58¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$58 +235%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$18 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$13 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $24 +$44 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $18 −$8 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$8 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $24 −$18 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 08 $9 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$11 +232%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 07 $15 −$13 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 07 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 07 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 07 $21 +$18 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 28m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -9.2% -17.8% 38% 38% -9.0%
≤30d 29 -9.2% -17.8% 38% 38% -9.0%
≤90d 29 -9.2% -17.8% 38% 38% -9.0%
all 29 -9.2% -17.8% 38% 38% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover49.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.8% 38% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 34% -17.7%
15% -32.9% 34% -25.6%
20% -39.4% 34% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.59 · official $4.51 (match) · 308 history records