Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:04:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8660…1b89 sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$47 (+21%) realized +$54 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%8W / 10L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day18.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -17.6% -25.4% 44% 44% +3.8%
≤30d 18 -17.6% -25.4% 44% 44% +3.8%
≤90d 18 -17.6% -25.4% 44% 44% +3.8%
all 18 -17.6% -25.4% 44% 44% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 44% +3.8%
10% -32.6% 28% -6.1%
15% -39.1% 22% -15.2%
20% -45.1% 22% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$6 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$54
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage3d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs FUT Esports 22¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $10 −$9 -88%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $57 +$9 +16%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $10 −$7 -73%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $5 +$4 +79%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $12 +$31 +252%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $12 +$2 +19%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 +$6 +30%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $15 +$8 +54%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $9 +$2 +21%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$4 -39%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $15 +$23 +153%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$5 -49%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $0 $0 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports $1 41m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $5 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $5 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 22¢ $7 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $66 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 99¢ $47 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 55¢ $5 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 52¢ $5 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL XLG Gaming $3 2h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 21¢ $10 3h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 16¢ $5 3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 55¢ $5 23h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Vitality 99¢ $43 23h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Paper Rex $0 23h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 32¢ $2 23h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 23¢ $10 24h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality $1 24h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 35¢ $5 24h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 29¢ $5 25h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL XLG Gaming 99¢ $12 26h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 23¢ $3 26h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 39¢ $2 26h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 61¢ $5 26h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 43¢ $5 26h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 19¢ $1 26h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 99¢ $19 27h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 95¢ $10 27h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 57¢ $5 27h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner SELL XLG Gaming 43¢ $7 27h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 30¢ $5 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 57 history records