Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:04:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

86 0x8660…1b89 sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$47 (+21%) realized +$54 · open −$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip

Net edge-31%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate44%8W / 10L

Drawdown40%max

Avg bet$12per market

Trades / day18.6pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)-25.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	-17.6%	-25.4%	44%	44%	+3.8%
≤30d	18	-17.6%	-25.4%	44%	44%	+3.8%
≤90d	18	-17.6%	-25.4%	44%	44%	+3.8%
all	18	-17.6%	-25.4%	44%	44%	+3.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover18.6 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-25.4%	44%	+3.8%
10%	-32.6%	28%	-6.1%
15%	-39.1%	22%	-15.2%
20%	-45.1%	22%	-23.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 36% · top 2 63% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -18% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -25% → late -11% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$11 vs −$6 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$54

Unrealized−$7

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses8 / 10

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)18 / 19

History coverage3d

Avg bet$12

Trades / day18.6

Drawdown40%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs	FUT Esports	22¢	0¢	$7	$0	−$7 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner	Jun 16	$10	−$9	-88%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner	Jun 16	$57	+$9	+16%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner	Jun 16	$10	−$7	-73%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof	Jun 15	$5	+$4	+79%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner	Jun 15	$12	+$31	+252%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner	Jun 15	$6	−$6	-98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo	Jun 15	$6	−$6	-98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner	Jun 15	$12	+$2	+19%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner	Jun 15	$20	+$6	+30%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner	Jun 14	$15	+$8	+54%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner	Jun 14	$9	+$2	+21%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner	Jun 14	$10	−$4	-39%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner	Jun 14	$8	−$8	-98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs	Jun 13	$15	+$23	+153%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner	Jun 13	$10	−$5	-49%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner	Jun 13	$0	$0	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner	SELL FUT Esports	7¢	$1	41m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner	BUY FUT Esports	55¢	$5	1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner	BUY FUT Esports	54¢	$5	1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play	BUY FUT Esports	22¢	$7	1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner	SELL Team Vitality	100¢	$66	1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner	BUY Team Vitality	99¢	$47	1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner	BUY Team Vitality	55¢	$5	1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner	BUY Team Vitality	52¢	$5	1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner	SELL XLG Gaming	6¢	$3	2h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner	BUY XLG Gaming	21¢	$10	3h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner	BUY XLG Gaming	16¢	$5	3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof	BUY Paper Rex	55¢	$5	23h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner	SELL Team Vitality	99¢	$43	23h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner	SELL Paper Rex	2¢	$0	23h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner	BUY Paper Rex	32¢	$2	23h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner	BUY Team Vitality	23¢	$10	24h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner	BUY Team Vitality	2¢	$1	24h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner	BUY Team Vitality	35¢	$5	24h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo	BUY XLG Gaming	29¢	$5	25h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner	SELL XLG Gaming	99¢	$12	26h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner	SELL EDward Gaming	23¢	$3	26h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner	BUY EDward Gaming	39¢	$2	26h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner	BUY EDward Gaming	61¢	$5	26h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner	BUY XLG Gaming	43¢	$5	26h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo	BUY XLG Gaming	19¢	$1	26h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner	SELL EDward Gaming	99¢	$19	27h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner	BUY EDward Gaming	95¢	$10	27h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner	BUY EDward Gaming	57¢	$5	27h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner	SELL XLG Gaming	43¢	$7	27h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner	BUY XLG Gaming	30¢	$5	27h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 57 history records