Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:17:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
86 0x8662…3629 crypto 906 markets active 0h ago coverage 79d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 79d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$317 (-6%) realized −$304 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate36%324W / 580L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day28.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days−$16
14 days−$3
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$347
weather 1% +$4
sports 0% −$4
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-35.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 176 -6.9% -15.8% 65% 52% -10.2%
≤30d 199 -3.0% -12.2% 64% 53% -9.2%
≤90d 904 -28.8% -35.6% 36% 29% -15.0%
all 904 -28.8% -35.6% 36% 29% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.6% 29% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -41.8% 22% -23.1%
15% -47.4% 18% -30.6%
20% -52.6% 14% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$304
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses324 / 580
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)904 / 906
History coverage79d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day28.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 904 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 246 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$5 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$5 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $13 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$10 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$8 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$5 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +134%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$4 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$6 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$6 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$2 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$16 -61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$2 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$14 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$6 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$8 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $7 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $7 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $6 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $6 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $6 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $6 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $6 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $6 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $6 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $6 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $6 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.65 · official $0.09 (match) · 3500 history records