Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:20:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8668…f04f other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$317 (-36%) realized −$317 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%8W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$103
7 days−$354
14 days−$402
30 days−$402
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$193
crypto 34% −$83
sports 14% −$118
world 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -15.8% -23.8% 31% 31% -51.5%
≤30d 28 -21.8% -29.3% 29% 29% -54.4%
≤90d 28 -21.8% -29.3% 29% 29% -54.4%
all 28 -21.8% -29.3% 29% 29% -54.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.3% 29% -54.4%
10% -36.0% 21% -58.7%
15% -42.2% 18% -62.7%
20% -47.9% 14% -66.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$28 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$317
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses8 / 20
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage7d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$9 +841%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 28 $77 −$20 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 28 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$20 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$6 +24%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $90 +$18 +20%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 0 Brazil? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $63 −$62 -98%
Spread: Croatia (-3.5) Jun 23 $22 −$21 -96%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $14 +$7 +52%
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: France (-5.5) Jun 22 $28 −$27 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $23 +$70 +307%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $20 +$2 +12%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 2h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 5h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 27¢ $20 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $23 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $25 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $90 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $64 3d
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 0 Brazil? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 51 history records