Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:47:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
86 0x866b…1bcd sports 17 markets active 2d ago coverage 429d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$878 (-33%) realized −$468 · open −$410
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -75% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -77% what you keep after slip
Net edge-77%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate17%2W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1,590now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$133
14 days−$133
30 days−$133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$430
sports 22% −$449
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-77.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -55.3% -59.6% 33% 33% -69.5%
≤30d 3 -55.3% -59.6% 33% 33% -69.5%
≤90d 3 -55.3% -59.6% 33% 33% -69.5%
all 12 -74.9% -77.3% 17% 8% -77.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -77.3% 8% -77.6%
10% -79.5% 8% -79.7%
15% -81.4% 0% -81.7%
20% -83.3% 0% -83.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -75% · $-wt -75% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -75% → late -75% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$49 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

429d coverage
Net worth$1,590
Realized−$468
Unrealized−$410
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses2 / 10
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)12 / 17
History coverage429d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $500 $375 −$125 (-25%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $400 $360 −$40 (-10%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $400 $350 −$50 (-12%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $400 $280 −$120 (-30%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $300 $225 −$75 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $50 +$17 +34%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Manchester United finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Prem Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 20 $84 −$82 -98%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 30 $50 −$43 -85%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 30 $50 −$38 -75%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 30 $200 −$149 -75%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-27? Apr 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Lazio vs. Bodo/Glimt end in a draw? Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Athletic Club vs. Rangers end in a draw? Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April? Apr 16 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 39h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $206 2d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $309 2d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $309 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $309 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $412 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 2d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 2d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 2d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 2d
Will Manchester United finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Prem BUY Yes 7¢ $2 91d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 91d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 5¢ $84 172d
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $7 172d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $12 172d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $51 172d
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 245d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 0¢ $50 245d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 2¢ $200 246d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-27? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 419d
Will Lazio vs. Bodo/Glimt end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 428d
Will Athletic Club vs. Rangers end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 428d
Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April? SELL No 0¢ $22 430d
Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April? BUY No 0¢ $22 430d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,590.00 · official $1,590.00 (match) · 31 history records