Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:59:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x866c…4837 crypto 253 markets active 4d ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$220 (-5%) realized −$232 · open +$12
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate71%178W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$174
14 days−$166
30 days−$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$176
sports 18% −$101
other 6% −$18
tech 3% +$16
world 3% −$1
politics 0% $0
finance 0% +$6
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -5.7% -14.7% 57% 43% -82.6%
≤30d 64 +7.6% -2.6% 78% 69% -29.8%
≤90d 249 +4.0% -5.9% 71% 61% -15.7%
all 249 +4.0% -5.9% 71% 61% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 61% -15.7%
10% -14.9% 39% -23.8%
15% -23.2% 24% -31.1%
20% -30.7% 16% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$13 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$232
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses178 / 71
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)249 / 253
History coverage54d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 76¢ 95¢ $45 $56 +$11 (+24%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 84¢ 95¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? No 60¢ 67¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $32 −$31 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $3 $0 +11%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $5 +$7 +138%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $10 +$1 +11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -5%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $153 −$151 -99%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 10 $10 +$1 +14%
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 10 $50 +$2 +4%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 10 $5 −$2 -40%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the Jun 10 $5 −$1 -12%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $5 +$3 +54%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (BO3) - Asia Jun 09 $15 +$2 +10%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 09 $25 +$3 +10%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Mast Jun 09 $10 +$1 +10%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $5 +$3 +52%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $5 +$1 +20%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $5 +$1 +13%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $10 +$1 +13%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $5 +$1 +17%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $10 +$3 +25%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $10 +$1 +12%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challe May 29 $5 +$1 +12%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Cha May 29 $5 +$3 +60%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leag May 28 $5 +$3 +62%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $5 +$2 +36%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) May 28 $5 +$4 +70%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $5 +$3 +60%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $5 +$3 +57%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea May 26 $5 +$1 +26%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challe May 26 $5 +$1 +14%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Ch May 26 $5 −$5 -99%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on May 26 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 25 $5 +$2 +36%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Ch May 25 $5 +$2 +32%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 24 $5 +$1 +16%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 24 $5 +$2 +40%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 23 $5 +$2 +40%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $5 +$1 +12%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $5 +$1 +29%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi May 22 $5 +$3 +67%
Game 2: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? May 22 $5 +$1 +26%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? May 22 $5 +$1 +12%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $5 +$2 +38%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Challengers May 22 $5 +$1 +13%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? May 22 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qual May 21 $5 +$5 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 83¢ $2 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 71¢ $30 3d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 90¢ $3 5d
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY G2 NORD 90¢ $10 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 47¢ $5 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 52¢ $5 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 53¢ $5 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 5d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $30 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $20 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $11 7d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on SELL Yes $3 7d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the SELL Yes 59¢ $4 7d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY G2 NORD 87¢ $10 7d
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B BUY KT Rolster Challengers 96¢ $50 7d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B BUY T1 Academy 90¢ $5 8d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B BUY T1 Academy 90¢ $10 8d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (BO3) - Asia BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 90¢ $5 8d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (BO3) - Asia BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 91¢ $10 8d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B BUY T1 Academy 91¢ $10 8d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 91¢ $10 8d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 53¢ $51 9d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 53¢ $51 9d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 50¢ $5 15d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 50¢ $5 15d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 50¢ $5 15d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 50¢ $5 15d
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 60¢ $5 19d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 19d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.19 · official $72.16 (match) · 652 history records