Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:41:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

86
0x866e…a949
sports · 32 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
−$18 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$18 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses20 / 12
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage24d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 0 History 32 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$99
7 days+$43
14 days−$3
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Group C RUSTEC 91¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 0 Arsenal FC? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Fluminense FC vs. Club Bolívar end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 2 Arsenal FC? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $156 +$19 +12%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $240 +$11 +5%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $150 +$5 +4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $202 +$74 +37%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $181 +$41 +22%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $41 +$3 +7%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 11 $102 −$93 -91%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $101 −$90 -89%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 11 $181 +$33 +18%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $101 +$29 +29%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $151 +$32 +22%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 10 $101 −$4 -4%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $104 +$39 +38%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $50 −$1 -2%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L Jun 10 $80 −$80 -100%
Counter-Strike: Invicta vs L.820 (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Stage Jun 10 $50 +$3 +6%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $167 −$27 -16%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $207 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group St Jun 09 $190 +$11 +6%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Mast Jun 09 $100 +$4 +4%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Jun 08 $37 +$4 +10%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $131 +$21 +16%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $50 +$7 +13%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $18 +$16 +90%
Will LDU de Quito win on 2026-05-26? May 30 $100 +$8 +8%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Fluminense FC vs. Club Bolívar end in a draw? May 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 87% −$33
other 13% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 91¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 89¢ $150 3h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 99¢ $30 4h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 95¢ $210 4h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 96¢ $150 4h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 39¢ $44 18h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 35¢ $41 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 81¢ $181 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 19h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 SELL HEROIC Academy 3¢ $9 19h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 BUY HEROIC Academy 33¢ $102 20h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $151 20h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 7¢ $11 20h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 58¢ $51 20h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 76¢ $50 20h
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 92¢ $80 24h
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 79¢ $101 26h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 77¢ $101 27h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series SELL Walczaki 75¢ $97 45h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY Walczaki 77¢ $101 45h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group BUY Leo Team 83¢ $50 45h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group BUY Leo Team 81¢ $101 45h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro BUY Ursa 68¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro BUY Ursa 72¢ $101 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C SELL Saigon Warriors 87¢ $49 2d
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp SELL Tallon Griekspoor 81¢ $30 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C BUY Saigon Warriors 88¢ $50 2d
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L BUY RUSTEC 91¢ $80 2d
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tallon Griekspoor 80¢ $30 2d
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Global Esports 96¢ $16 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -2.2% -11.5% 75% 38% -8.2%
≤30d 32 -17.4% -25.2% 62% 31% -10.0%
≤90d 32 -17.4% -25.2% 62% 31% -10.0%
all 32 -17.4% -25.2% 62% 31% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 31% -10.0%
10% -32.4% 16% -18.7%
15% -38.9% 9% -26.5%
20% -44.9% 3% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 69 history records