Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:32:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
86 0x866e…2d1e crypto 285 markets active 1h ago coverage 184d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$152 (+3%) realized +$206 · open −$71
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate92%252W / 21L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$41
14 days+$64
30 days+$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% +$173
tech 20% +$65
world 9% −$40
finance 4% −$56
other 2% +$8
economics 0% −$16
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 67% 67% -60.4%
≤30d 23 +129.7% +107.8% 78% 52% +0.4%
≤90d 111 +27.5% +15.3% 85% 43% -5.4%
all 273 +14.1% +3.2% 92% 27% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.2% 27% -6.1%
10% -6.7% 12% -15.1%
15% -15.7% 5% -23.3%
20% -24.0% 1% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$18 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$160
Realized+$206
Unrealized−$71
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses252 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)273 / 285
History coverage184d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 273 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 86¢ 97¢ $43 $48 +$5 (+12%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 88¢ 98¢ $26 $29 +$3 (+12%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 80¢ 94¢ $16 $19 +$3 (+18%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? Yes $12 $10 −$2 (-17%)
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $330 in June? No 91¢ 88¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? Yes $12 $6 −$6 (-51%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 70¢ $56 $5 −$51 (-91%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Yes $9 $2 −$7 (-74%)
Will Solana reach $100 in June? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-35%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 17¢ $8 $1 −$7 (-86%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-63%)
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? Yes $3 $0 −$3 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $70 −$42 -60%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 11 $4 $0 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? Jun 09 $0 $0 +46%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of April? Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May? Jun 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Jun 05 $4 +$65 +1630%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $4 +$46 +1149%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $510 in June? Jun 05 $42 +$3 +7%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $495 in June? Jun 05 $16 +$1 +8%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $525 in June? Jun 05 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 04 $8 +$32 +426%
Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $10 $0 +3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $107 +$33 +30%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $14 +$6 +39%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $41 +$9 +22%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $130 +$17 +13%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in May? May 30 $1 $0 +19%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $450 in May? May 30 $14 +$2 +11%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $465 in May? May 30 $18 +$2 +14%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in May? May 23 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? May 13 $144 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 13 $4 +$1 +31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 13 $9 +$1 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 13 $7 +$2 +37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 09 $7 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 09 $9 +$1 +15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 09 $30 +$4 +14%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? May 01 $10 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 01 $9 +$1 +14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $100 in April? May 01 $8 +$2 +20%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? May 01 $14 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $15 +$3 +18%
Will Google reach $400 in April? May 01 $5 $0 +3%
Will Tesla reach $420 in April? May 01 $16 +$4 +22%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 30 $47 +$3 +6%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 30 $40 +$10 +26%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 30 $32 +$8 +25%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 end of April? Apr 30 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Google reach $355 in April? Apr 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? Apr 29 $6 +$3 +46%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? Apr 29 $9 +$3 +36%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? Apr 28 $7 +$2 +34%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 25 $55 +$15 +28%
Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April Apr 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Google reach $375 in April? Apr 25 $19 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $35 +$3 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? BUY Yes $12 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $28 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $12 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $42 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $5 31h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $8 31h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $8 31h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL Yes $4 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $13 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $14 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 80¢ $16 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 86¢ $11 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 86¢ $32 5d
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $330 in June? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 5d
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $330 in June? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 5d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes $6 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $17 6d
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? BUY Yes $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.57 · official $159.57 (match) · 725 history records