Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:33:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8671…07b0 politics 111 markets active 11h ago coverage 219d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized +$152 · open −$168
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate31%34W / 74L
Whale WR10%big bets
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$250per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$9
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 65% −$68
other 29% +$37
world 4% −$169
sports 2% +$46
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 19 -0.7% -10.2% 5% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 63 -5.0% -14.0% 13% 10% -10.1%
all 108 +1.1% -8.6% 31% 27% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 27% -9.4%
10% -17.3% 26% -18.1%
15% -25.3% 26% -26.0%
20% -32.6% 22% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 10% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$5 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

219d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$152
Unrealized−$168
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses34 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)10%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)108 / 111
History coverage219d
Avg bet$250
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 48¢ 6¢ $112 $15 −$97 (-86%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 63¢ 10¢ $50 $8 −$42 (-84%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 33¢ 5¢ $33 $5 −$28 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 13 $624 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $445 −$6 -1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 09 $50 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $54 −$1 -2%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $245 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $359 −$3 -1%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $193 $0 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $455 −$6 -1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $116 −$2 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $23 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $22 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 19 $80 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 18 $20 $0 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $22 $0 -2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $135 −$2 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $32 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 17 $147 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $292 −$11 -4%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $45 $0 -1%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $37 −$2 -5%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $204 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $220 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $230 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $3,201 −$3 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $750 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $640 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $675 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $279 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $130 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 11 $130 −$1 -1%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $180 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $52 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $110 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $43 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $110 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $170 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 05 $240 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $381 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 23 $60 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $50 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $45 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $5 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $33 39h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $76 47h
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $67 2d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $67 4d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $25 5d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $38 5d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $65 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $50 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $48 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 7d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $20 7d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $22 7d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $25 7d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $20 7d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 7d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $22 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $40 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $108 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $67 18d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.21 · official $28.21 (match) · 505 history records