Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:36:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8671…82a9 sports 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 205d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$80 (-15%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%8W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$80
other 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 14 -49.0% -53.8% 7% 7% -75.8%
all 21 -7.3% -16.1% 38% 38% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 38% -23.5%
10% -24.1% 33% -30.8%
15% -31.4% 24% -37.5%
20% -38.2% 24% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -73% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +95% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$22 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

205d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses8 / 13
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage205d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 13 $31 −$31 -99%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 19 $46 −$46 -99%
Hawks vs. Raptors Apr 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Kings vs. Suns Apr 19 $8 −$8 -100%
76ers vs. Pacers Apr 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers Apr 19 $23 −$23 -100%
76ers vs. Trail Blazers Apr 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Spurs vs. Hawks Apr 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Pistons vs. Hornets Apr 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Rockets vs. Spurs Apr 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Wizards vs. Celtics Apr 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Wizards vs. Pelicans Apr 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Knicks Apr 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Kings vs. Clippers Apr 19 $11 +$69 +614%
Thunder vs. Raptors Mar 08 $26 +$24 +96%
Lakers vs. Wizards Feb 09 $38 +$12 +30%
Kings vs. Cavaliers Jan 30 $42 +$8 +20%
Hornets vs. Magic Jan 23 $19 +$41 +212%
Nets vs. Mavericks Jan 22 $30 +$20 +64%
Bucks vs. Knicks Dec 19 $37 +$13 +35%
Magic vs. 76ers Nov 28 $28 +$22 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $31 1h
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 62¢ $31 36d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 77¢ $46 60d
Kings vs. Clippers BUY Kings 14¢ $11 96d
Wizards vs. Celtics BUY Wizards 7¢ $14 96d
Wizards vs. Pelicans BUY Wizards 21¢ $17 102d
Rockets vs. Spurs BUY Rockets 34¢ $17 102d
76ers vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 21¢ $10 114d
Thunder vs. Raptors BUY Thunder 51¢ $26 114d
76ers vs. Trail Blazers BUY 76ers 60¢ $30 130d
Pistons vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 42¢ $21 130d
Lakers vs. Wizards BUY Lakers 77¢ $38 139d
Trail Blazers vs. Knicks BUY Trail Blazers 29¢ $14 139d
Kings vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 83¢ $42 146d
Hornets vs. Magic BUY Hornets 32¢ $19 147d
Nets vs. Mavericks BUY Mavericks 61¢ $30 157d
Hawks vs. Raptors BUY Hawks 41¢ $20 164d
Kings vs. Suns BUY Kings 16¢ $8 167d
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers BUY Mavericks 46¢ $23 171d
Spurs vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 45¢ $36 181d
Bucks vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 74¢ $37 202d
Magic vs. 76ers BUY Magic 57¢ $28 205d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.25 · official $30.25 (match) · 41 history records