Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:20:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8673…4025 crypto 547 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d only
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$417 (+5%) realized +$450 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate46%214W / 250L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day72.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1,305now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$30
14 days+$321
30 days−$452
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$362
tech 29% −$90
other 20% +$708
world 4% +$52
finance 2% +$6
politics 0% +$8
sports 0% −$2
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +2.9% -6.9% 44% 25% -5.0%
≤30d 272 -24.4% -31.6% 36% 21% -27.9%
≤90d 464 -3.6% -12.8% 46% 34% -8.6%
all 464 -3.6% -12.8% 46% 34% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 34% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 28% -17.4%
15% -28.8% 21% -25.3%
20% -35.7% 16% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$1,305
Realized+$450
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses214 / 250
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions97
Markets (closed)464 / 547
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day72.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 97 History 464 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 92¢ 94¢ $65 $67 +$2 (+3%)
Will Bangladesh recognize Israel by December 31? No 83¢ 92¢ $51 $56 +$5 (+10%)
Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31? No 90¢ 94¢ $49 $51 +$2 (+4%)
Will Anthropic have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 93¢ 88¢ $53 $50 −$3 (-5%)
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 68¢ $45 $48 +$2 (+5%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? No 65¢ 88¢ $28 $38 +$10 (+35%)
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 98¢ $34 $36 +$2 (+5%)
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No 29¢ 56¢ $18 $35 +$16 (+89%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $54 $33 −$20 (-38%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? No 57¢ 56¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-3%)
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? No 64¢ 74¢ $23 $26 +$4 (+16%)
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-3%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Yes 32¢ 55¢ $15 $25 +$11 (+71%)
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Yes 54¢ 44¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-18%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 76¢ 95¢ $19 $24 +$5 (+24%)
Will any AI model reach 1550 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No 61¢ 98¢ $15 $24 +$9 (+61%)
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $35 $23 −$12 (-33%)
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 67¢ 72¢ $20 $22 +$1 (+7%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-2%)
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 16¢ 61¢ $5 $20 +$15 (+275%)
Will any AI model reach 1570 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 98¢ $18 $19 +$2 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 105 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 7, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$6 -190%
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 -2%
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $25 −$22 -86%
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? Jun 18 $22 +$6 +28%
Will Z.ai have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -54%
Will xAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -82%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $2 +$2 +86%
Will Z.ai have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $14 −$12 -86%
Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $28 −$23 -82%
Will Claude go down 12+ times in June? Jun 18 $11 −$8 -69%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $52 +$33 +62%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $43 +$17 +40%
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in June? Jun 17 $4 −$3 -70%
Will FIFA World Cup 2026 be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on J Jun 17 $1 $0 -59%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $30 +$8 +26%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 +$31 +598%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $14 +$4 +28%
Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 16 $6 $0 +3%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $38 +$1 +2%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? Jun 16 $20 +$5 +26%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $8 $0 +3%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on J Jun 15 $8 $0 +4%
Will Wipr 2 be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 15 $25 −$24 -97%
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Con Jun 15 $8 +$5 +67%
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 14 $20 +$2 +10%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $6 −$4 -65%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Jun 14 $1 +$22 +1945%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $15 +$5 +33%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $74 −$2 -3%
Will MrBeast say "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" 5+ times during Jun 13 $8 +$1 +12%
Will MrBeast say "Eliminate" or "Eliminated" during his next YouTube v Jun 13 $3 +$1 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 21m
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 26¢ $9 53m
Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Contro SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $18 1h
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $25 1h
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $28 2h
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? SELL No 67¢ $6 2h
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $28 2h
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2h
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2h
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 2h
Will Z.ai have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will xAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E SELL Yes 19¢ $10 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 2h
Will Z.ai have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3h
Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4h
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 5h
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6h
Will Z.ai have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026 BUY No 96¢ $7 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 7h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 7h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 7h
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $28 8h
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 8h
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 8h
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,305.09 · official $1,305.12 (match) · 3500 history records