Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:29:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8674…468e sports 451 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,618 (-1%) realized −$7,617 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate69%307W / 141L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,504per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$1,381est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,413
7 days−$1,479
14 days−$2,770
30 days−$5,497
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$2,395
other 22% −$11,400
crypto 1% −$66
world 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 145 -19.4% -27.1% 23% 14% -50.9%
≤30d 215 -13.7% -21.9% 44% 13% -13.2%
≤90d 448 -6.7% -15.6% 69% 12% -10.7%
all 448 -6.7% -15.6% 69% 12% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 12% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 6% -19.2%
15% -31.1% 4% -27.0%
20% -37.8% 4% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$2,358) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$278 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$7,617
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses307 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$1,381
Open positions3
Markets (closed)448 / 451
History coverage86d
Avg bet$1,504
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 448 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? No 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Paris Basketball 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv Jun 23 $140 +$15 +10%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $1 +$5 +441%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $125 +$12 +10%
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -65%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +86%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -76%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-05-16? Jun 22 $1,456 −$1,456 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 22 $134 +$33 +24%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -85%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $2 +$3 +157%
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 22 $1 +$9 +873%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 22 $1 +$4 +416%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $118 +$6 +5%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -75%
Monaco vs. Paris Basketball Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -77%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -76%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $1 $0 -6%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 21 $90 −$90 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY No 9¢ $1 53m
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Paris Basketball 2¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv SELL Maccabi Tel-Aviv 100¢ $155 1h
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv BUY Maccabi Tel-Aviv 90¢ $140 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 17h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $137 20h
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream SELL Toronto Tempo 0¢ $0 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $125 21h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 22h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 22h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 22h
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Toronto Tempo 5¢ $1 22h
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Chicago Sky 22¢ $2 22h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 25h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 25h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 28h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 28h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 29h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 29h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 29h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 43h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 43h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 43h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? SELL Yes 65¢ $5 43h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 44h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.81 · official $2.75 (match) · 967 history records