Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:10:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

86
0x8675…725d
crypto · 54 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$798 +17%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$799 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$123
Realized+$799
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses30 / 23
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage124d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 1 History 53 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$543
7 days+$543
14 days+$543
30 days+$616
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Yunchaokete Bu Yunchaokete Bu 59¢ 58¢ $124 $123 −$1 (-1%)
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 52¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will SSC Napoli vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $61 +$67 +109%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $27 +$9 +31%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $20 +$8 +38%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $511 +$330 +65%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $359 +$195 +54%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 $0 -3%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $271 +$97 +36%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $164 +$108 +66%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 13.5 Jun 11 $237 −$140 -59%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 11 $283 −$120 -42%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers May 28 $55 −$54 -99%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) May 27 $388 −$215 -55%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 19 $449 +$341 +76%
Will SSC Napoli vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw? May 11 $28 −$28 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante May 11 $152 −$133 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 11 $11 +$11 +93%
Will Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF América end in a draw? May 11 $37 +$14 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 11 $10 −$5 -44%
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 May 11 $3 +$6 +188%
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 May 11 $59 +$73 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET May 11 $33 −$24 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET May 10 $80 −$76 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 10 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 10 $11 −$9 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 10 $20 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 10 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 10 $42 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 10 $54 +$32 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 10 $21 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 10 $21 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 10 $66 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 10 $11 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 10 $72 +$21 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 10 $81 −$31 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 10 $34 −$11 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 10 $48 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 10 $19 −$8 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 10 $25 +$13 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 10 $51 −$32 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 09 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 09 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 09 $18 +$64 +353%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 09 $10 +$15 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 09 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 09 $20 +$19 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 09 $20 +$17 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 71% +$526
crypto 20% −$35
other 9% +$307
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Yunchaokete Bu BUY Yunchaokete Bu 59¢ $105 1h
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Yunchaokete Bu BUY Yunchaokete Bu 58¢ $21 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $128 3h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $61 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $27 8h
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 72¢ $20 15h
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 60¢ $511 26h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $554 29h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 68¢ $9 29h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 69¢ $10 32h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 64¢ $359 32h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $368 34h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 73¢ $271 34h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 12.5 SELL Under 99¢ $271 35h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 59¢ $164 36h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron SELL Ben Shelton 42¢ $163 36h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 71¢ $283 39h
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 52¢ $55 16d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 13.5 SELL Under 99¢ $54 16d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 13.5 BUY Under 74¢ $41 16d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 13.5 SELL Under 13¢ $41 16d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 13.5 BUY Under 59¢ $195 16d
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) SELL Tampa Bay Rays 25¢ $173 16d
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 54¢ $388 16d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Tampa Bay Rays 100¢ $790 25d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 56¢ $449 25d
Will SSC Napoli vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $28 32d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante SELL Flavio Cobolli 9¢ $19 32d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante BUY Flavio Cobolli 69¢ $152 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +17.6% +6.4% 64% 64% +15.7%
≤30d 14 +8.2% -2.1% 57% 57% +10.1%
≤90d 51 +8.7% -1.6% 55% 49% +2.0%
all 53 +10.6% +0.1% 57% 51% +6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 51% +6.9%
10% -9.5% 49% -3.3%
15% -18.3% 40% -12.7%
20% -26.3% 30% -21.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.85 · official $122.85 (match) · 196 history records