Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:49:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
86 0x8678…75b6 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$42 (+24%) realized +$66 · open −$24
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate75%12W / 4L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$8
14 days−$1
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$14
sports 30% +$4
crypto 15% +$9
world 14% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -37.9% -43.8% 50% 25% -43.6%
≤30d 9 -6.4% -15.3% 67% 44% +18.1%
≤90d 16 +11.0% +0.4% 75% 62% +26.0%
all 16 +11.0% +0.4% 75% 62% +26.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.4% 62% +26.0%
10% -9.2% 56% +14.0%
15% -18.0% 50% +3.0%
20% -26.0% 25% -7.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.06 per $1 lost it wins $4.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$66
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses12 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions14
Markets (closed)16 / 30
History coverage52d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 81¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+12%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 54¢ 24¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-55%)
Spain leading at halftime? Yes 75¢ 30¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-59%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Spain 35¢ 10¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-70%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-26%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 56¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-92%)
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Spain 22¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 06 $3 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 06 $16 +$4 +28%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 31 $26 +$24 +90%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 23 $1 $0 +1%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? May 10 $5 +$1 +19%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 28 $10 +$12 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 27 $5 +$2 +48%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Apr 25 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 25 $1 +$1 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 50m
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 51m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 22¢ $2 59m
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 35¢ $5 59m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $10 59m
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 41h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $0 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $9 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 9d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 16d
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $8 16d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $26 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 23d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 24d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.13 · official $52.13 (match) · 49 history records