Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:33:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x867c…9b81 politics 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 668d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-0%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%4W / 82L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$15
other 47% −$8
sports 1% −$1
world 1% −$1
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 86 -8.6% -17.3% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 0% -9.7%
10% -25.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -32.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -39.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -17% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

668d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses4 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)86 / 86
History coverage668d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 86 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 28 $58 $0 +0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $58 $0 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 16 $58 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 14 $117 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $58 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $59 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 27 $59 $0 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 20 $59 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 18 $59 $0 +0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Mar 14 $59 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 10 $59 $0 +0%
Will Jared Cannonier be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, Mar 04 $59 −$1 -2%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Nov 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto win the 2025 NL Cy Young? Nov 25 $57 $0 +0%
Will Real Sociedad win La Liga? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Edwards lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 29 $3 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dinamo Zagreb win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the Western Conference? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will another player lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the Serie A? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Saquon Barkley be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Amon-Ra St. Brown be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jalen Hurts win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will there be a US Government shutdown? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will A.J. Brown be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Solana ETF approved in 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $15k in 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alvin Kamara be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bijan Robinson be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Someone else announced as next BlackRock CEO? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of EPL? Dec 21 $0 $0 -2%
Eight Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? Dec 21 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 21 $0 $0 -3%
Will Joe Burrow be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will Pam Bondi be Trump's Attorney General? Dec 09 $0 $0 -1%
Will Dak Prescott win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Dec 09 $0 $0 -0%
Will Girona win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 26 $1 $0 -0%
Will Joel Embiid lead the NBA in scoring? Nov 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will Kyler Murray be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Nov 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will the New York Giants win the NFC East? Nov 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will 'Red One' gross more than $27m on opening weekend? Nov 18 $0 $0 -0%
Will the Titans win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 18 $0 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be appointed as the next Ohio senator? Nov 17 $0 $0 -3%
Will Chris Christie win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Elec Nov 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Ele Nov 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $58 1h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $58 18h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 23d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 24d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $58 36d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $58 36d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $58 42d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $58 42d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $58 44d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $58 44d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $58 51d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $58 51d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $59 73d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $59 74d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 86d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 86d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $59 92d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $59 92d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 100d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 100d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $59 102d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $59 102d
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio SELL No 100¢ $59 105d
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio BUY No 100¢ $59 105d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $59 110d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $59 110d
Will Jared Cannonier be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, SELL No 98¢ $58 115d
Will Jared Cannonier be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, BUY No 100¢ $59 154d
Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto win the 2025 NL Cy Young? BUY No 100¢ $57 254d
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of EPL? SELL Yes 96¢ $0 553d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 188 history records