Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:32:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8683…244a other 24 markets active 14h ago coverage 394d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$11 (+3%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate46%11W / 13L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$8
politics 18% +$3
other 15% $0
culture 7% −$1
tech 6% $0
crypto 6% $0
finance 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +10.5% -0.0% 38% 12% -5.7%
≤30d 8 +10.5% -0.0% 38% 12% -5.7%
≤90d 8 +10.5% -0.0% 38% 12% -5.7%
all 24 +4.1% -5.8% 46% 12% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 12% -7.2%
10% -14.8% 8% -16.1%
15% -23.1% 4% -24.2%
20% -30.6% 4% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.58 per $1 lost it wins $2.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

394d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses11 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage394d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $51 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $13 +$12 +93%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $15 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $14 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $44 −$5 -11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $44 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 −$1 -25%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Dec 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 04 $2 $0 +23%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 27 $24 −$1 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jun 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 12 $23 $0 -0%
Starmer out before July? Jun 10 $3 $0 +2%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 08 $26 $0 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will Williams be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 07 $4 $0 -2%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 06 $25 +$3 +13%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? May 18 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $13 13h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $39 13h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $22 15h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $29 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 29¢ $26 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $13 41h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $14 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $14 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 50¢ $12 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 50¢ $28 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $20 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $20 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 78¢ $37 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 78¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $44 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $12 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $16 6d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 181d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $2 346d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 348d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 348d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 102 history records