Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:02:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
86 0x8686…7e4c other 203 markets active 2h ago coverage 247d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$143 (-3%) realized −$134 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate76%145W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$16
14 days−$15
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$11
sports 15% −$35
crypto 5% −$82
world 3% −$27
politics 1% +$8
economics 1% −$4
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -8.3% -17.0% 60% 30% -18.7%
≤30d 22 -6.6% -15.5% 68% 32% -10.8%
≤90d 59 -4.2% -13.3% 83% 19% -9.0%
all 192 -4.3% -13.4% 76% 32% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 32% -12.3%
10% -21.7% 19% -20.7%
15% -29.2% 10% -28.3%
20% -36.2% 7% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$11 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$134
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses145 / 47
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)192 / 203
History coverage247d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 192 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-18%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-33%)
Will Jonathan David record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-41%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Scott McTominay be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$20 +66%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $21 −$4 -20%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $21 −$8 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $17 $0 +0%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 04 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $55 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $10 +$5 +49%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $5 +$2 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $50 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 31 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $83 +$1 +1%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-05-16? May 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 14 $11 +$2 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $70 +$5 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $28 +$4 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $25 +$2 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $60 +$4 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $69 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $68 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $67 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 04 $67 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 02 $55 $0 +1%
Madrid Open: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev May 01 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $65 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? May 01 $64 $0 +1%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Rafael Jodar Apr 29 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $64 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $64 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $63 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $62 +$1 +1%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $61 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $60 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 20 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 16 $64 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 1h
Will Jonathan David record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIF BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $25 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $17 40h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $16 40h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $13 40h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $13 40h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 43h
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 43h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 2d
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 2d
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 4d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $25 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 8d
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 8d
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 8d
Will Scott McTominay be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 8d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 9d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 77¢ $5 14d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? SELL Yes 63¢ $6 14d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $1 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.27 · official $44.27 (match) · 531 history records