Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:58:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x868c…1703 sports 685 markets active 9h ago coverage 442d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$80 (-1%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate60%409W / 274L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$32
14 days−$77
30 days+$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$338
crypto 17% −$50
other 5% +$6
politics 1% −$8
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 +3.2% -6.7% 69% 28% -13.1%
≤30d 363 -2.5% -11.7% 63% 41% -5.9%
≤90d 389 -4.5% -13.6% 62% 41% -17.7%
all 683 -7.2% -16.1% 60% 44% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 44% -15.4%
10% -24.1% 30% -23.5%
15% -31.4% 21% -30.9%
20% -38.2% 15% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

442d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses409 / 274
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)683 / 685
History coverage442d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 683 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 199 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 16 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +307%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$5 +474%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $9 +$21 +226%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 14 $6 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 13 $10 +$2 +25%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $32 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$11 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$1 -14%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $5 +$1 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $4 +$1 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 9h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 9h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 32h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 33h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 38h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY LG Twins 68¢ $2 39h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY LG Twins 67¢ $3 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 41h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.71 · official $21.71 (match) · 1712 history records