Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:10:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8690…5875 sports 1052 markets active 2h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 50d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,403 (-1%) realized −$3,403 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%1035W / 30L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$281per market
Trades / day49.0pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,320
7 days−$5,113
14 days−$5,044
30 days−$4,307
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$1,161
other 12% −$1,729
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -14.1% -22.3% 85% 1% -20.1%
≤30d 503 -2.8% -12.0% 96% 1% -12.0%
≤90d 1065 -1.5% -10.8% 97% 1% -10.7%
all 1065 -1.5% -10.8% 97% 1% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 1% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 0% -19.3%
15% -27.2% 0% -27.1%
20% -34.3% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$549) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$201 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,403
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses1035 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1065 / 1052
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$281
Trades / day49.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1065 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Club Bolívar vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 30 $125 −$125 -100%
Wuning 2: Sergey Fomin vs Moerani Bouzige Jun 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Houkes vs Lajovic Jun 30 $2,178 −$2,178 -100%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Mirra Andreeva vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Utah vs. Flames: O/U 5.5 Jun 30 $3 −$3 -100%
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Warriors vs. Clippers Jun 30 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Daria Kasatkina vs Ann Li Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
SE Palmeiras vs. Santos FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 30 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LNG Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Chwalinska vs. Montgomery: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 30 $14 −$14 -100%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 29 $998 +$1 +0%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $90 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $123 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $72 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $15 $0 +0%
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Goiás EC: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $24 $0 +0%
Fortaleza EC leading at halftime? Jun 29 $260 +$2 +1%
Fortaleza EC vs. SC Recife: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $358 +$3 +1%
Will Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC end in a draw? Jun 28 $1,109 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Dalian Yingbo FC 2 - 2 Shanghai Shenhua FC? Jun 28 $11 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Dalian Yingbo FC 3 - 2 Shanghai Shenhua FC? Jun 28 $9 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Qingdao Xihaian FC 2 - 0 Zhejiang Zhiye FC? Jun 28 $98 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Qingdao Xihaian FC 1 - 0 Zhejiang Zhiye FC? Jun 28 $1 $0 +1%
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $549 +$6 +1%
Algeria vs. Austria: Algeria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $989 +$10 +1%
Algeria vs. Austria: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $11 $0 +1%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 28 $288 +$3 +1%
Jordan vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $368 +$4 +1%
Algeria vs. Austria: Algeria 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $361 +$5 +1%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $15 $0 +1%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $64 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: DR Congo 0 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 28 $989 +$10 +1%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $135 $0 +0%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $931 +$68 +7%
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $444 $0 +0%
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $22 $0 +1%
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $961 +$1 +0%
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $98 +$1 +1%
Henan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $98 +$1 +1%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $1 $0 +1%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $1,108 +$11 +1%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $9 $0 +1%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Belgium? Jun 27 $989 +$10 +1%
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $98 +$1 +1%
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $22 $0 +1%
United States to score first vs. Türkiye? Jun 26 $648 +$7 +1%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $47 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $123 1h
Germany to win the second half? BUY Yes 100¢ $613 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $90 1h
Germany to win the second half? BUY Yes 100¢ $175 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $72 1h
Germany to win the second half? BUY Yes 100¢ $65 1h
Germany to win the second half? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $15 1h
Germany to win the second half? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 1h
Germany to win the second half? BUY Yes 100¢ $90 1h
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Goiás EC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 100¢ $4 24h
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Goiás EC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 100¢ $20 24h
Fortaleza EC vs. SC Recife: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 99¢ $354 25h
Fortaleza EC vs. SC Recife: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 99¢ $4 25h
Fortaleza EC leading at halftime? BUY Yes 99¢ $253 25h
Fortaleza EC leading at halftime? BUY Yes 99¢ $8 25h
Will Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $554 35h
Will Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $554 35h
Exact Score: Dalian Yingbo FC 2 - 2 Shanghai Shenhua FC? BUY No 99¢ $11 35h
Exact Score: Dalian Yingbo FC 3 - 2 Shanghai Shenhua FC? BUY No 96¢ $9 35h
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $549 36h
Exact Score: Qingdao Xihaian FC 2 - 0 Zhejiang Zhiye FC? BUY No 99¢ $98 37h
Exact Score: Qingdao Xihaian FC 1 - 0 Zhejiang Zhiye FC? BUY No 99¢ $1 37h
Algeria vs. Austria: Algeria 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $361 44h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 99¢ $288 44h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $35 44h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $45 44h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $16 44h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $16 44h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $10 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records