Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:59:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8692…660d crypto 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-11%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate42%14W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$16
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -11.6% -20.0% 42% 32% -26.7%
≤30d 33 -8.8% -17.5% 42% 36% -22.4%
≤90d 33 -8.8% -17.5% 42% 36% -22.4%
all 33 -8.8% -17.5% 42% 36% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 36% -22.4%
10% -25.4% 30% -29.9%
15% -32.6% 24% -36.6%
20% -39.2% 18% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses14 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage7d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 08 $11 +$11 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$5 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$3 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$6 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $1 31m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 31m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 37m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 85 history records