Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:18:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
86 0x8693…cc0d sports 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$79 (+14%) realized +$80 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%5W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days+$146
14 days+$65
30 days+$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$153
other 12% −$68
world 9% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +8.6% -1.7% 42% 42% +27.7%
≤30d 17 -19.8% -27.4% 29% 29% +3.2%
≤90d 17 -19.8% -27.4% 29% 29% +3.2%
all 17 -19.8% -27.4% 29% 29% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.4% 29% +3.2%
10% -34.4% 29% -6.7%
15% -40.7% 29% -15.7%
20% -46.5% 29% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$17 · ×3.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$80
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses5 / 12
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage8d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 68¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $102 +$62 +60%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $100 +$135 +135%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $13 +$20 +151%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 +$18 +178%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 16 $10 +$29 +280%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$20 -40%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Gavi Paez: 1+ goals Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $102 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 93¢ $164 12h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $102 18h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 98¢ $234 2d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 40¢ $100 2d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes $3 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 4d
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $10 4d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 27¢ $10 4d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 84¢ $34 5d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $13 5d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 15¢ $21 5d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 30¢ $52 5d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL Yes 99¢ $39 6d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $16 6d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 25¢ $10 7d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $10 7d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $10 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 35¢ $31 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 7d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $21 7d
Gavi Paez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $21 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.26 · official $99.26 (match) · 24 history records