Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:04:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
86 0x8693…56bc crypto 151 markets active 7d ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+2%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate79%120W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$46
other 12% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.9% -6.0% 100% 0% -6.0%
≤30d 95 -2.4% -11.7% 79% 49% -8.6%
≤90d 151 -0.7% -10.1% 79% 50% -8.7%
all 151 -0.7% -10.1% 79% 50% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 50% -8.7%
10% -18.7% 33% -17.5%
15% -26.6% 21% -25.4%
20% -33.8% 9% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses120 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)151 / 151
History coverage46d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 151 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$17 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 382 history records