Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:32:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8694…2ae8 sports 678 markets active 0h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$264 (+6%) realized +$226 · open +$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate51%339W / 332L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day18.7pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$148
7 days+$100
14 days+$8
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$176
other 12% −$137
world 1% +$25
crypto 1% +$7
finance 1% +$10
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 496 -1.6% -11.0% 51% 43% -6.7%
≤30d 669 -4.6% -13.7% 51% 43% -8.4%
≤90d 671 -4.7% -13.8% 51% 43% -8.5%
all 671 -4.7% -13.8% 51% 43% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 43% -8.5%
10% -22.0% 39% -17.2%
15% -29.5% 35% -25.2%
20% -36.5% 30% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized+$226
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses339 / 332
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions7
Markets (closed)671 / 678
History coverage47d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 671 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 44¢ 88¢ $20 $40 +$20 (+98%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Yes 9¢ 42¢ $5 $23 +$18 (+361%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5 Over 44¢ 42¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 48¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? No 52¢ 76¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 314 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $20 +$37 +180%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 +$21 +105%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 +$42 +206%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -98%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $20 +$22 +109%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $41 +$26 +63%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $20 +$21 +105%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $20 +$51 +250%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 +$35 +172%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 +$20 +97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $20 +$75 +365%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$27 +134%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$18 +86%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $41 +$13 +31%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $21 +$36 +169%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$35 +172%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $20 +$26 +129%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$1 -5%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $20 +$37 +180%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$1 -4%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 $0 +8%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +10%
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) Jun 18 $5 +$14 +276%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $5 +$3 +60%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr Jun 18 $5 +$10 +188%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 18 $5 +$6 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 3m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 22m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 14¢ $21 46m
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 100¢ $42 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 21¢ $20 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $20 2h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 47¢ $20 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $20 2h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 3h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 44¢ $20 4h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 35¢ $21 4h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 33¢ $20 4h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 48¢ $20 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 26¢ $20 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 21¢ $20 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $20 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 22¢ $20 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 20¢ $20 5h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $20 5h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi BUY No 42¢ $20 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 93¢ $38 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 37¢ $21 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $20 8h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $20 8h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $20 8h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 38¢ $20 8h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 34¢ $20 8h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 28¢ $20 8h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Rinky Hijikata 100¢ $55 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.90 · official $117.75 · 1165 history records