Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:07:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8698…19f8 other 261 markets active 0h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 249L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$29
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$45
sports 22% −$22
culture 8% −$9
politics 7% −$4
economics 6% −$5
crypto 5% −$4
world 2% −$2
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 188 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 261 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 249
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)261 / 261
History coverage141d
Avg bet$220
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 261 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 20 $383 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $381 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $334 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $196 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 20 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $582 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $217 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $336 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $186 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $281 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $232 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $218 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $896 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $266 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $132 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $140 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $262 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $374 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $235 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $249 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $672 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $460 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $164 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $309 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $157 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $211 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 12 $182 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $800 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $325 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $215 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $612 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $332 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $229 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $64 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $276 −$2 -1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $379 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $131 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $147 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $865 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $209 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $531 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $590 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $57 17m
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $57 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 4h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 6h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 8h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 9h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 10h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $58 12h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $58 13h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $58 15h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $58 17h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $58 18h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $58 19h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $58 30h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $58 31h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 39h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 40h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $59 2d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $59 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $59 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 3d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1465 history records