Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:50:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

86
0x8699…ab5c
crypto · 1191 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$275 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$275 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$16
Realized−$275
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses780 / 410
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1190 / 1191
History coverage146d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1190 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$12
14 days−$61
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 33¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Team Liquid 37¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$5 +152%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$5 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$6 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$4 +124%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +110%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$6 +190%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$4 +114%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$8 +240%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$4 +114%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +101%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$5 +166%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$5 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +101%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$5 +146%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$4 +124%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$5 +166%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$4 +134%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 88% −$221
sports 11% −$26
other 1% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 56m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 57m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $3 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $3 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 172 -4.5% -13.6% 38% 37% -11.6%
≤30d 249 -2.2% -11.5% 41% 40% -13.1%
≤90d 560 -2.9% -12.2% 56% 53% -11.9%
all 1190 -3.2% -12.4% 66% 53% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 53% -12.3%
10% -20.8% 38% -20.7%
15% -28.5% 28% -28.4%
20% -35.5% 16% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.12 · official $16.12 (match) · 2147 history records