Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
86 0x869a…0ac7 other 1035 markets active 0h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 74d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,396 (+1%) realized +$3,332 · open +$64
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%1017W / 14L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$529per market
Trades / day32.1pace
Fees−$106est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$7,306now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$603
7 days+$2,632
14 days+$3,498
30 days+$3,488
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$3,354
other 24% +$609
weather 1% +$26
politics 1% +$5
world 1% −$12
culture 0% +$2
crypto 0% +$13
tech 0% +$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +0.4% -9.1% 98% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 157 +0.4% -9.1% 98% 2% -8.8%
≤90d 1031 +0.8% -8.8% 99% 1% -8.9%
all 1031 +0.8% -8.8% 99% 1% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 1% -8.9%
10% -17.5% 1% -17.6%
15% ← realistic here -25.5% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$46 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×7.11 per $1 lost it wins $7.11
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$7,306
Realized+$3,332
Unrealized+$64
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1017 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$106
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1031 / 1035
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$529
Trades / day32.1
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1031 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Yes 99¢ 100¢ $4,514 $4,557 +$43 (+1%)
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Yes 99¢ 100¢ $2,650 $2,675 +$25 (+1%)
Martin Baturina: 1+ goals Yes 99¢ 92¢ $74 $69 −$5 (-7%)
Luka Modrić: 1+ assists No 99¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,348 +$14 +1%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $18,960 +$193 +1%
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Alina Charaeva Jun 17 $1,532 +$1 +0%
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ assists Jun 17 $744 +$8 +1%
Ali Al Hamadi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $292 +$3 +1%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $553 +$1 +0%
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You Jun 16 $9,528 +$9 +0%
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu Jun 16 $8,841 +$159 +2%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $2,307 +$2 +0%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $18,751 +$19 +0%
Ronald Araújo: 1+ goals Jun 16 $18,568 +$194 +1%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $13,563 +$137 +1%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 15 $4,241 +$43 +1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $601 +$6 +1%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $87 +$1 +1%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $4,141 +$42 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $284 +$3 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $639 +$6 +1%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $495 +$5 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $8,413 +$85 +1%
Will Ibanez be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 14 $9,729 +$95 +1%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Kaja Juvan Jun 13 $23 $0 +1%
Halle Open, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Alex Bolt Jun 13 $989 +$10 +1%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 13 $208 −$40 -19%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $17,883 +$181 +1%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $17,772 +$193 +1%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $17,575 +$178 +1%
Ilkley: Elizabeth Mandlik vs Dalma Galfi Jun 12 $32 $0 +1%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $4,063 +$41 +1%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 12 $17,328 +$207 +1%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $17,127 +$173 +1%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $17,011 +$172 +1%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Jun 11 $793 +$8 +1%
ITF Curtea de Arges: Anas Mazdrashki vs David Eichenseher Jun 11 $1,287 +$13 +1%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $15,543 +$157 +1%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $1,199 +$12 +1%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $1,277 +$13 +1%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $968 +$10 +1%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $16,554 +$205 +1%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $1,813 +$18 +1%
Tucuman: Segundo Goity Zapico vs Federico Coria Jun 10 $4,446 +$56 +1%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Jan Choinski Jun 10 $16,335 +$165 +1%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $137 +$1 +1%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $1,035 +$10 +1%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $2,598 +$26 +1%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $6,950 +$70 +1%
Will Kawkab AC win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $4 $0 +1%
Togo vs. Benin: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $98 +$2 +2%
Liberia vs. Sierra Leone: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $1,057 +$11 +1%
Togo vs. Benin: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $1,421 +$14 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Luka Modrić: 1+ assists BUY No 99¢ $4 27m
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $174 1h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $291 1h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $62 1h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $23 1h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $11 1h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $76 1h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $20 1h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $10 1h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $99 1h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $33 1h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $207 1h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $13 1h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $99 1h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $34 1h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $12 1h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $225 1h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $222 1h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $4 1h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $330 1h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $46 1h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $9 1h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $6 1h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $619 1h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $19 1h
Martin Baturina: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $74 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $29 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $403 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,305.68 · official $7,305.68 (match) · 3500 history records