Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:46:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

86
0x869b…543b
crypto · 49 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$16 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$120 · open −$18
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$120
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses9 / 38
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 49
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day60.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 47 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$120
7 days−$120
14 days−$120
30 days−$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Down 17¢ 2¢ $17 $1 −$15 (-91%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$13 +662%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$23 +453%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$12 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$8 +423%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$4 +138%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$138
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $18 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $8 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $28 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $13 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-45.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -39.3% -45.1% 19% 19% -61.1%
≤30d 47 -39.3% -45.1% 19% 19% -61.1%
≤90d 47 -39.3% -45.1% 19% 19% -61.1%
all 47 -39.3% -45.1% 19% 19% -61.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover60.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.1% 19% -61.1%
10% ← realistic here -50.4% 19% -64.8%
15% -55.2% 17% -68.2%
20% -59.6% 13% -71.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.55 · official $6.31 · 64 history records