Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:28:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x869d…804d crypto 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$186 (-24%) realized −$186 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -10.3% -18.8% 55% 55% -37.0%
≤30d 11 -10.3% -18.8% 55% 55% -37.0%
≤90d 11 -10.3% -18.8% 55% 55% -37.0%
all 11 -10.3% -18.8% 55% 55% -37.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 55% -37.0%
10% -26.6% 45% -43.0%
15% -33.7% 36% -48.6%
20% -40.2% 27% -53.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$71 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$186
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $181 −$175 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$54 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$26 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$14 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $207 −$100 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $76 +$27 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $81 +$15 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $107 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records