Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:01:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

86
0x86a2…73a8
crypto · 25 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$831 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$762 · open −$631
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$20,891
Realized+$762
Unrealized−$631
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses53 / 412
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions21
Markets (closed)465 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,882
Trades / day2731.6
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 21 History 465 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$762
7 days+$762
14 days+$762
30 days+$762
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? No 74¢ 84¢ $4,367 $4,957 +$590 (+14%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Yes 83¢ 98¢ $1,954 $2,292 +$338 (+17%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? No 97¢ 99¢ $1,606 $1,646 +$40 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Yes 92¢ 100¢ $1,498 $1,618 +$119 (+8%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,533 $1,541 +$9 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $1,473 $1,503 +$30 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $1,380 $1,387 +$7 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $1,039 $1,042 +$3 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $931 $936 +$5 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $728 $732 +$4 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? No 96¢ 98¢ $510 $519 +$9 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $451 $421 −$30 (-7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? No 64¢ 68¢ $387 $414 +$27 (+7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 13? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $365 $367 +$2 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $351 $365 +$14 (+4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? No 25¢ 10¢ $726 $274 −$452 (-62%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 12? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $182 $183 +$1 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 12? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $138 $139 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $128 $127 −$1 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $114 $119 +$5 (+4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 12? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $63 $63 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $123 $58 −$65 (-53%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? No 19¢ 2¢ $272 $36 −$237 (-87%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 13? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 1? Jun 12 $0 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$5 -147%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$8 -838%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$22 -142%
XRP Up or Down - January 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 3, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 8? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -117%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$13 -139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$25 -217%
Solana Up or Down - November 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$22 -178%
Solana Up or Down - November 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$10 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$22 -414%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 25? Jun 12 $19 −$20 -106%
Solana Up or Down - November 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$28 -288%
XRP Up or Down - December 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$145 -4527%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +40%
XRP Up or Down - November 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$77 -18001%
XRP Up or Down - November 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$57 -512%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$14 -3139%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$18 -2176%
Solana Up or Down - November 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$15 -3281%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$12 -1015%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$14 -946%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$2 -128%
Solana Up or Down - November 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$26 -2423%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$22 -3987%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$8 -169%
XRP Up or Down - December 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$2 -245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$6 -503%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -88%
XRP Up or Down - November 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +135%
XRP Up or Down - November 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$17 -509%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$9 -246%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$11 -263%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$5 -129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$6 -792%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 25? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$21 -1301%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$4 -1066%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$17 -643%
Solana Up or Down - November 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -62%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$16 -1175%
XRP Up or Down - November 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$7 -274%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$15 +344%
XRP Up or Down - November 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$32 -27802%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$14 -13738%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$7,630
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 98¢ $59 0m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 98¢ $37 0m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 98¢ $22 0m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 0m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $60 0m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $60 0m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 98¢ $59 1m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 98¢ $59 1m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 98¢ $59 1m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? SELL No 1¢ $1 2m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? SELL No 1¢ $1 2m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? SELL No 1¢ $1 2m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 98¢ $59 5m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 98¢ $59 5m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $60 5m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 98¢ $59 5m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 98¢ $59 5m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $59 6m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $60 6m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $60 6m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 98¢ $59 8m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 98¢ $59 8m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 98¢ $59 8m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 98¢ $59 8m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 98¢ $59 9m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 97¢ $38 9m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-44.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 465 -38.6% -44.5% 11% 11% +18.4%
≤30d 465 -38.6% -44.5% 11% 11% +18.4%
≤90d 465 -38.6% -44.5% 11% 11% +18.4%
all 465 -38.6% -44.5% 11% 11% +18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2731.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -44.5% 11% +18.4%
10% ← realistic here -49.8% 10% +7.1%
15% -54.6% 10% -3.3%
20% -59.1% 9% -12.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,890.78 · official $20,897.99 (match) · 3500 history records