Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:42:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x86a4…4fb0 crypto 58 markets active 2d ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$5 (-5%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%8W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$24
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$46
other 15% −$8
sports 10% +$50
economics 4% −$1
politics 2% −$1
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-42.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -10.8% -19.3% 18% 18% +35.3%
≤30d 34 -10.8% -19.3% 18% 18% +35.3%
≤90d 34 -10.8% -19.3% 18% 18% +35.3%
all 58 -36.6% -42.6% 14% 14% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.6% 14% -15.7%
10% -48.1% 12% -23.8%
15% -53.1% 10% -31.1%
20% -57.7% 10% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×5.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses8 / 50
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage273d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +180%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 14 $1 $0 -43%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $1 $0 -17%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +57%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$54 +1735%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by September 30? Sep 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104,000 on September 17? Sep 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $120,000 and $122,000 on Septembe Sep 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $122,000 on September 17? Sep 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,700 on September 17? Sep 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $122,000 on September 17? Sep 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Sep 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Sep 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Sep 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 16 $1 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 16 $1 $0 +17%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 16 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Sep 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Sep 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Sep 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Sep 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 5¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 12¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 89¢ $3 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 103 history records