Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:13:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x86a9…9642 crypto 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14 (+7%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate74%28W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day38.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -3.1% -12.3% 74% 34% -12.3%
≤30d 38 -3.1% -12.3% 74% 34% -12.3%
≤90d 38 -3.1% -12.3% 74% 34% -12.3%
all 38 -3.1% -12.3% 74% 34% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 34% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 26% -20.7%
15% -28.4% 21% -28.3%
20% -35.4% 16% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses28 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day38.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$14 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 77 history records