Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:09:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
86 0x86ac…29ae crypto 422 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,043 (-2%) realized −$1,043 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate69%290W / 132L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$112
7 days−$155
14 days−$800
30 days−$824
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,633
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +0.8% -8.8% 68% 48% -11.8%
≤30d 134 -5.5% -14.5% 65% 51% -13.8%
≤90d 413 -1.5% -10.9% 69% 54% -11.9%
all 422 -1.9% -11.3% 69% 54% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 54% -12.0%
10% -19.8% 40% -20.4%
15% -27.5% 27% -28.1%
20% -34.6% 14% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$87 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,043
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses290 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)422 / 422
History coverage96d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 422 Trades
no open positions (43 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $41 +$17 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 23 $153 −$99 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 23 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $230 −$22 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 23 $77 +$58 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 23 $195 −$53 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 23 $200 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $282 −$143 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 23 $407 −$198 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $203 +$61 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 23 $304 +$66 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 23 $205 +$98 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $258 −$50 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $408 −$58 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 23 $203 −$45 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $302 +$29 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 23 $301 +$14 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 23 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $204 +$86 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 23 $203 +$44 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $179 +$40 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 23 $128 +$65 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 23 $202 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 23 $201 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $102 +$33 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 23 $203 +$40 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 23 $77 +$57 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $202 −$131 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 23 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 23 $153 +$49 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$42 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 23 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 23 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 23 $66 +$26 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$6 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $72 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $56 +$22 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $36 +$18 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$17 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $33 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $13 +$10 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$11 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $309 −$100 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $26 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $102 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $99 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $136 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $55 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1687 history records