Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:24:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
86 0x86ae…4984 crypto 112 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (95 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$34 (+3%) realized +$35 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate65%72W / 38L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day95.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$127
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (95 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 +1.2% -8.4% 65% 62% +2.0%
≤30d 110 +1.2% -8.4% 65% 62% +2.0%
≤90d 110 +1.2% -8.4% 65% 62% +2.0%
all 110 +1.2% -8.4% 65% 62% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover95.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 62% +2.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 55% -7.8%
15% -25.2% 42% -16.7%
20% -32.5% 26% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$35
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses72 / 38
Open positions2
Markets (closed)110 / 112
History coverage2d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day95.0
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Down 69¢ 84¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+22%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $150 +$57 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$4 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $58 +$9 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$15 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $22 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$4 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$6 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $89 +$32 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$6 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$20 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $81 +$12 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $27 +$17 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$15 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$18 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $20 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $51 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $51 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $7 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.89 · official $3.41 · 348 history records