Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:09:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
86 0x86af…e454 crypto 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$295 (+5%) realized +$299 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate93%51W / 4L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$7
crypto 41% −$47
finance 4% +$348
culture 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 41 -2.1% -11.4% 95% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 51 -1.6% -11.0% 96% 0% -10.5%
all 55 +1.2% -8.5% 93% 4% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 4% -5.3%
10% -17.2% 2% -14.4%
15% -25.2% 2% -22.7%
20% -32.6% 2% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$27 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.43 per $1 lost it wins $6.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$299
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses51 / 4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)55 / 58
History coverage145d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 23? No 100¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 18? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 16? Jun 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 16? Jun 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3,459 −$4 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? Jun 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 10? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 10? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 9? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 8? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 5? Jun 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 4? Jun 05 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 4? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 2? Jun 03 $13 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 1? Jun 02 $13 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $95 on May 29? Jun 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 on May 29? Jun 01 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 28? May 29 $12 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? May 29 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? May 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 27? May 28 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 26? May 27 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 25? May 26 $10 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 25 $53 −$51 -97%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 23? May 25 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 18-24? May 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 22? May 23 $11 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 21? May 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 22? May 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 21? May 22 $32 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 20? May 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 20? May 21 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 19? May 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 19? May 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 18? May 19 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $12 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 25h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 5d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $31 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 6d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $12 7d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $33 7d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $3,455 7d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $3,459 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $30 13d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $31 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $33 15d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $31 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 4? BUY Yes 99¢ $12 19d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $31 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 2? BUY No 99¢ $13 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $32 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.73 · official $41.73 (match) · 120 history records