Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:44:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
86 0x86af…f384 sports 147 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$799 (+1%) realized +$1,203 · open −$404
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%90W / 55L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$623per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$874est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$381now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$399
7 days−$2,150
14 days−$1,852
30 days+$2,129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$2,487
other 2% −$1,052
crypto 2% −$1,588
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -12.7% -21.0% 50% 50% -33.0%
≤30d 67 -1.0% -10.4% 61% 61% -5.0%
≤90d 145 -1.8% -11.2% 62% 62% -9.3%
all 145 -1.8% -11.2% 62% 62% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 62% -9.3%
10% -19.7% 54% -18.0%
15% -27.4% 43% -25.9%
20% -34.5% 30% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$664) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$339 vs −$550 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$381
Realized+$1,203
Unrealized−$404
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses90 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$874
Open positions2
Markets (closed)145 / 147
History coverage72d
Avg bet$623
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 48¢ 62¢ $294 $380 +$86 (+29%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Spirit 66¢ 0¢ $490 $0 −$490 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $299 +$197 +66%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $489 −$486 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $300 +$189 +63%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $301 −$299 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,606 −$1,595 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $848 +$758 +89%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $457 +$392 +86%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $299 +$158 +53%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $301 −$297 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $899 −$885 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $619 +$282 +46%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $355 +$264 +74%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $363 −$8 -2%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $299 +$64 +22%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $301 −$298 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $598 −$587 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $1,035 −$1,023 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $358 +$677 +189%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $282 +$77 +27%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $448 −$442 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $299 +$149 +50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1,303 +$709 +54%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $831 +$472 +57%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $654 +$178 +27%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $566 +$89 +16%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $298 +$267 +89%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $347 −$342 -99%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - United21 Playof Jun 10 $889 −$882 -99%
Rainbow Six Siege: Shifters vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA League Jun 09 $523 +$362 +69%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $299 +$278 +93%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $299 −$296 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $299 −$291 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $435 −$426 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $300 +$136 +46%
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs Rebels Gaming (BO1) - Europe MENA Jun 09 $1,105 −$1,105 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $365 −$360 -99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $664 +$505 +76%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $450 +$215 +48%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $301 +$150 +50%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $595 −$582 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $298 +$300 +101%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $140 −$139 -99%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $166 −$164 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $593 +$1,231 +208%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $300 −$297 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $1,100 +$341 +31%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $768 +$333 +43%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $486 +$281 +58%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $298 +$188 +63%
Map Handicap: BIG (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5) Jun 05 $298 −$293 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 48¢ $299 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 66¢ $495 3h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 99¢ $496 3h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 59¢ $299 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 81¢ $452 20h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 82¢ $36 20h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $489 20h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 59¢ $38 21h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 61¢ $261 21h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $301 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,606 4d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $1,606 4d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 52¢ $848 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $849 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 53¢ $457 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 99¢ $457 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 64¢ $299 5d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 58¢ $301 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $899 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 100¢ $901 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 68¢ $619 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 99¢ $619 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 56¢ $355 5d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) SELL Spirit 64¢ $355 5d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Spirit 64¢ $363 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 99¢ $363 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 81¢ $299 5d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) BUY Vitality 72¢ $301 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 0¢ $297 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 75¢ $301 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $380.65 · official $380.65 (match) · 280 history records