Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:25:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

86
0x86b9…6d67
crypto · 1649 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$233 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$243 · open −$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$514
Realized+$243
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses1588 / 46
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions22
Markets (closed)1634 / 1649
History coverage14d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day133.3
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 22 History 1634 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$175
14 days+$269
30 days+$243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 86¢ 91¢ $326 $346 +$20 (+6%)
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) BetBoom Team 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Naef vs. Urhobo: Match O/U 22.5 Under 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Naef vs. Urhobo: Match O/U 23.5 Under 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 Under 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Sweeny vs. Harris: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Over 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 Under 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BetBoom Team 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Over 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Set Handicap: Anisimova (-1.5) vs Jovic (+1.5) Jovic 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Under 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-2.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+2.5) Paper Rex 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Set Handicap: Almeida (-1.5) vs Rodriguez (+1.5) Rodriguez 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) Bellucci 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-2.5) vs Paper Rex (+2.5) Paper Rex 98¢ 90¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Set Handicap: Added (-1.5) vs Luque (+1.5) Luque 98¢ 50¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-48%)
Rodrigues vs. Hernandez: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Over 100¢ 50¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Rodrigues vs. Hernandez: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Over 100¢ 50¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: ex-MANA eSports (-3.5) vs Clutchain (+3.5) Clutchain 98¢ 50¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-49%)
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 Over 98¢ 90¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 Over 98¢ 90¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Map Handicap: G1 (-1.5) vs SPARTA (+1.5) GenOne 98¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - May 22, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$5 -920%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$10 -1616%
BNB Up or Down - May 22, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$19 -3796%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$15 -2262%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$11 -1634%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$10 -6098%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Zantedeschi (-1.5) vs Mazzola (+1.5) Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Jovic vs. Anisimova: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Jovic vs. Anisimova: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Zantedeschi vs. Mazzola: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Shelton vs. Giron: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Shelton vs. Giron: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Giron (+1.5) Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Vidmanova vs. Stefanini: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Dudeney vs. Krueger: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Maric vs. Podoroska: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Bellucci vs. Fritz: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-6.5) vs GenOne (+6.5) Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $12 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-3.5) vs GenOne (+3.5) Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Samuel vs. Holmgren: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Set Handicap: Coppejans (-1.5) vs Galan (+1.5) Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Set Handicap: Karol/Serdarusic (-1.5) vs Pokorny/Sachko (+1.5) Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Piros vs. Daniel: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: PARIVISION (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 12 $20 +$1 +5%
Map Handicap: MNTE (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Added vs. Luque: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Added vs. Luque: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Snigur (-1.5) vs Montgomery (+1.5) Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Auger-Aliassime vs. Majchrzak: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Echeverria (-1.5) vs Gomez (+1.5) Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Smith vs. Fearnley: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Cirstea vs. Raducanu: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 12 $18 +$1 +5%
Set Handicap: Cirstea (-1.5) vs Raducanu (+1.5) Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Cirstea vs. Raducanu: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Samuel vs. Holmgren: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Huergo/Radisic vs. Gorgodze/Karamoko: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Fierros vs. Bidan: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Fierros vs. Bidan: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Guilleme vs. Lagerbohm: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Guilleme vs. Lagerbohm: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 71% +$155
other 19% +$12
sports 9% +$134
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 100¢ $10 10m
Jovic vs. Anisimova: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 100¢ $4 26m
Jovic vs. Anisimova: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $4 39m
Zantedeschi vs. Mazzola: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $4 40m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 48m
Jovic vs. Anisimova: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $6 1h
Zantedeschi vs. Mazzola: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $6 1h
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) BUY Bellucci 99¢ $2 1h
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) BUY Bellucci 99¢ $8 1h
Bellucci vs. Fritz: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 1h
Set Handicap: Almeida (-1.5) vs Rodriguez (+1.5) BUY Rodriguez 99¢ $10 1h
Maric vs. Podoroska: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 1h
Set Handicap: Added (-1.5) vs Luque (+1.5) BUY Luque 98¢ $10 1h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 BUY Under 99¢ $10 1h
Added vs. Luque: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 100¢ $10 1h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 99¢ $10 1h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) BUY BetBoom Team 98¢ $10 1h
Rodrigues vs. Hernandez: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 1h
Naef vs. Urhobo: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 99¢ $10 1h
Naef vs. Urhobo: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 99¢ $10 1h
Added vs. Luque: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 1h
Set Handicap: Karol/Serdarusic (-1.5) vs Pokorny/Sachko (+1.5) BUY Pokorny/Sachko 100¢ $10 1h
Rodrigues vs. Hernandez: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 1h
Piros vs. Daniel: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 97¢ $10 1h
Auger-Aliassime vs. Majchrzak: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 99¢ $10 1h
Set Handicap: Zantedeschi (-1.5) vs Mazzola (+1.5) BUY Mazzola 98¢ $10 1h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-2.5) vs Paper Rex (+2.5) BUY Paper Rex 99¢ $5 1h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-2.5) vs Paper Rex (+2.5) BUY Paper Rex 98¢ $5 1h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 BUY Over 98¢ $5 1h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 BUY Over 98¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 518 +0.0% -9.5% 98% 1% -7.6%
≤30d 1634 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 1% -9.0%
≤90d 1634 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 1% -9.0%
all 1634 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 1% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover133.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 1% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -17.7%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.3% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $514.23 · official $514.23 (match) · 3500 history records