Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:38:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x86bd…378e crypto 1000 markets active 0h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$250 (-2%) realized −$250 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate56%562W / 438L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day40.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$152
14 days−$295
30 days−$343
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$462
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 152 -1.6% -11.0% 54% 23% -17.8%
≤30d 634 -0.4% -9.8% 59% 37% -12.5%
≤90d 1000 -3.6% -12.8% 56% 39% -13.0%
all 1000 -3.6% -12.8% 56% 39% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 39% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 26% -21.3%
15% -28.8% 17% -28.9%
20% -35.7% 9% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$250
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses562 / 438
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1000 / 1000
History coverage47d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day40.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1000 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$4 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $13 −$4 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3011 history records