Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:05:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
86 0x86be…62d0 sports 155 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$75 (-2%) realized −$65 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%73W / 69L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day23.2pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$181
14 days+$274
30 days+$274
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$367
other 26% −$83
crypto 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 +6.3% -3.8% 52% 52% -2.7%
≤30d 142 +6.1% -4.0% 51% 51% -1.3%
≤90d 142 +6.1% -4.0% 51% 51% -1.3%
all 142 +6.1% -4.0% 51% 51% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.0% 51% -1.3%
10% ← realistic here -13.2% 51% -10.7%
15% -21.6% 47% -19.3%
20% -29.3% 41% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$18 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$65
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses73 / 69
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions3
Markets (closed)142 / 155
History coverage10d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day23.2
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay to win the second half? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Over 44¢ 11¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $15 +$6 +38%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $101 +$74 +73%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $20 +$10 +48%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$20 +78%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $20 +$20 +97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $20 +$9 +46%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$45 +90%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 AND Will Germany win on 202 Jun 20 $20 +$54 +262%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $46 +$59 +130%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$10 +101%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 +$5 +48%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Second half draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $25 +$27 +105%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 +$56 +549%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $25 +$27 +108%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $51 −$40 -78%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 +$25 +63%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 +$14 +134%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -98%
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$25 +99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $30 +$21 +70%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $15 +$23 +148%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $21 51m
Uruguay to win the second half? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $175 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $101 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $30 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $20 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde BUY 34¢ $51 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 72¢ $15 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $15 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $101 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $10 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $10 6h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 7h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 47¢ $25 8h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 8h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 8h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 47¢ $25 8h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $20 23h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 23h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 23h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 56¢ $25 23h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $20 24h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Ecuador to win the second ha BUY 51¢ $20 24h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 24h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 55¢ $10 24h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY 53¢ $10 25h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $20 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.77 · official $74.77 (match) · 278 history records