Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:28:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x86c1…9321 crypto 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$353 (-12%) realized −$353 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%39W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$72
14 days−$114
30 days−$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$407
sports 2% +$41
other 2% −$1
politics 2% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +49.9% +35.6% 41% 41% -24.2%
≤30d 48 +16.5% +5.4% 50% 50% -20.2%
≤90d 48 +16.5% +5.4% 50% 50% -20.2%
all 84 +5.2% -4.8% 46% 44% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 44% -24.5%
10% -13.9% 38% -31.8%
15% -22.2% 30% -38.4%
20% -29.8% 20% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$22 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$353
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses39 / 45
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)84 / 84
History coverage160d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 84 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 29 $49 +$31 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 29 $36 +$16 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 29 $67 −$35 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 29 $41 −$8 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 29 $41 +$18 +44%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 29 $31 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 29 $42 −$10 -24%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 29 $13 −$12 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 29 $11 +$11 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 29 $31 +$12 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 29 $38 −$7 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 29 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 29 $52 −$20 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 29 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 29 $31 +$14 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$10 -32%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 25 $25 −$8 -32%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 25 $41 −$20 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 25 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$48 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$28 -96%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$4 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$15 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$4 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $41 +$14 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$7 -23%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$6 -16%
Set 2 Winner: Mannarino vs Fery Jun 17 $5 +$5 +89%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $30 +$15 +50%
Set 1 Winner: Mannarino vs Fery Jun 17 $30 +$21 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$7 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $43 +$3 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $43 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$7 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Feb 27 $26 −$26 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Feb 27 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $16 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $6 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $8 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 415 history records